Survivor Ghost Island edgic side notes: Early overexposure

We’re four episodes into Survivor Ghost Island and there are a few players from this season who are shown way too much. What does that mean for winner odds?

Halfway before we get to the merge, Survivor Ghost Island has been an entertaining thrill ride so far! At this point in the season, we have a few compelling storylines (such as Chris vs. Domenick, Malolo vs. Naviti and Donathan’s journey), yet nobody is squarely running the entire game on the level of a Kim Spradlin.

For edgic watchers, Survivor Ghost Island doesn’t have a clear-cut winner yet! Not only is that great from a viewing perspective, but for those who look closely into the edit, it becomes a matter of learning from recent editing technique to know the best chances of who can win with what little we know.

For example, when I was writing up my edgic pieces for Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers, no matter how much Ryan Ulrich gave confessionals and acted as narrator for the first half, I knew that he was way too overexposed to win the game. He had way too many flaws such as unwillingness to provide at camp and was given too many edited segments showing him as weak, even though he did make it to the end in third place.

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Most importantly, he was way too overexposed to the audience. He was shown so much on television screens that it became obvious he wouldn’t win, as the editing team needed to make him a distraction for viewers. So, too, was Ali Elliott, who many had thought was a legitimate contender about two episodes before she was voted out as the last pre-merge boot.

I had wondered about the historic context of overexposed pre-merge characters and their relevance in the game, yet I found someone on the Survivor subreddit had already done the legwork. User narbz posted a chart looking through 35 seasons’ confession counts through the first four episodes, highlighting two different ledgers; the number of confessionals for the most exposed character and the number of confessionals for the winner.

Only Richard Hatch, Boston Rob and Tony Vlachos have had the most confessionals after four episodes in the 35 seasons of Survivor with known results and gone on to win their season. Furthermore, editing seems to jump every season or two in terms of spreading confessionals to winners and the most visible player, but in each season, the disparity seems to be close to even, no matter how many confessionals the most visible player has.

What does that mean for Survivor Ghost Island? It means that Domenick, a player referred to as Russell Hantz 2.0 and has a bag of tricks like Tony Vlachos, has to hope to be actually playing a Tony Vlachosian game this season. He’s the most exposed player in the game. Additionally, Kellyn Bechtold, Stephanie Johnson, Michael Yerger, Chris Noble and Donathan Hurley are near the expected confessional disparity of a winner, as they have the best shots to win from a historical standpoint.

Must Read: Survivor Winners: Ranking All 34 Sole Survivors By Season

Of course, anything can happen in a season such as Survivor Ghost Island. Players who visit the physical Ghost Island location are guaranteed at least one extended confessional, screentime and a ton of personal content, with each player visiting telling the audience more about themselves. It’s entirely possible that players will get unusual edit styles or subversions because of this, as personal content is usually a strong indication that the editors want you to pay attention to a certain character.

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In addition to paying attention to editing, as someone who enjoys edgic, you also need to make note of logical developments. Just because Chris has the magic confessional ratio doesn’t mean his edit so far screams of a winner. His number one ally, Angela, admits to not liking being bossed around by him. He makes egotistical comments that are left in the edit. Donathan and Laurel talk about how they like Wendell more than they do Chris. Logically, Chris has a really tough draw this season.

Additionally, edgicers should also note the kinds of confessionals players make and what they’re saying. Laurel Johnson had an amazing last episode not because she won PB&J and got the loose-lipped Domenick to tell her he has an idol, but because she admitted she played an under-the-radar game in the first two weeks and wants to play bigger now.

That’s huge because it starts the conversation of Laurel emerging from her shell and growing as a player. She’s not too late to make a push a la Ashley Nolan last season. Sarah Lacina had few confessionals in the first few weeks in the game, but that’s because she barely went to Tribal Council. Yet, they gave her time to talk about playing like a criminal, not a cop, and emerging as a force to be reckoned with. It worked!

Next: Survivor: Ranking all 35 seasons

Survivor Ghost Island is about a third of the way done, and there’s still tons of game to be played. Still, it’s good to have an idea of who to pay attention to in the crucial, formative moments in a season’s edgic.