For Survivor SA: Island of Secrets, Day 39 is upon us. Will any of the four finalists be able to put an end to Rob’s superb game.
After 17 episodes and 17 eliminations, the endgame is finally here. Only four castaways remain, and although all of the idols are gone, there still isn’t an even playing field. We’re going to go through each of the four players assessing their probability of both making Final Tribal Council, and winning the title of Sole Survivor. For these rankings, I’m assuming that it’s going to be a Final Three, not a Final Two.
4) Laetitia Le Roux
Odds of making Final Tribal Council:
Even before her visit to the Island of Secrets, Laetitia’s infallible loyalty to Rob and Nicole made her a desirable third wheel. Now that she has the Vote Nullifier, the only way she’s going home is if all three write her name down. At this point, Rob and Nicole still appear to want Durão out, so if he doesn’t win Individual Immunity, then he’s gone.
Chances of winning it all:
Last Tribal Council helped us to see how the jury thought about Laetitia. When she mentioned about feeling a part of the Amigos, the jury couldn’t hold back their annoyance. Since Laetitia is playing a very passive game and now supporting the Amigos, I can’t see the jury voting for. The only way she can possibly grab a few votes is if she uses her Vote Nullifier to take out Nicole or even Rob if he loses the Immunity Challenge.
Consensus: Laetitia has a very good shot at making the Final Three, but she’s going to have to make a massive move with her Vote Nullifier if she wants any love from the jury.
3) Durão Mariano
Odds of making Final Tribal Council:
Durão doesn’t have an easy road to making it to Day 39. He was vocal about the way the Amigos have be running the show, and with Steffi out of the way, Durão is now Rob and Nicole’s biggest threat. His best bet is to win the Immunity Challenge, but that’s no easy task when you’re up against Rob. If he loses, he has to somehow convince Laetitia to vote with him and use her Vote Nullifier.
Chances of winning it all:
It’s hard to pick out any significant moves Durão has made to this point, but that might not matter. Durão has been gaining appreciation with the jury, especially after exposing the Amigos’ deceptive ways. If he makes the end by his own power, then Durão could sneak out a win if the jury stays bitter.
Consensus: Durão doesn’t have an easy path to the Final Three, but if he could somehow hang in there, this bitter jury might just give him the win.
2) Nicole Capper
Odds of making Final Tribal Council:
Nicole might just be in the best position out of the Final Four to make it to Day 39. Durão is the obvious vote, but if he wins Individual Immunity, Rob becomes the primary target, not Nicole. The only scenario I could see her in jeopardy is if Rob wins the challenge and Durão is able to convince Laetitia to use her advantage and vote for Nicole.
Chances of winning it all:
It won’t be easy for this original Sa’ula member to win the title of Sole Survivor. If she makes it to the end with Rob, they’re either going to reward his masterful game or be bitter towards both of the Amigos members. If she gets to Day 39 without Rob, then she has a better opportunity to win, but there’s a chance that the jury won’t appreciate her play and decide to vote for Durão instead.
Consensus: Nicole has a clear path to Final Tribal Council, but in order for her to win, she must take out Rob and be ready to convince the jury.
1) Rob Bentele
Odds of making Final Tribal Council:
For the first time in weeks, Rob doesn’t have a Hidden Immunity Idol to protect him. However, he does have his physical ability to rely on, already winning four Individual Immunities! Don’t let his humble attitude fool you, he’s just as good at puzzles and concentration challenges as physical ones.
The finale preview gave us glimpses of the classic Ball Drop Immunity Challenge, which is one Rob can win. However, if he does lose, he’s going to have to milk his social game like never before. If Durão wins, he needs to keep Laetitia on his side, and if someone else wins, he must get Nicole and Durão to vote out Laetitia. It won’t be an easy route to the end if he doesn’t have the Immunity Necklace.
Chances of winning it all:
No one has dominated a season of Survivor this well in a long time. Rob definitely has the gameplay to justify a win, plus he’s likable and eloquent enough to sway a jury with his comments. Considering how bitter this jury has been towards the Amigos, you never know what can happen, but I would be completely shocked if Rob makes the end and doesn’t win the title of Sole Survivor.
Consensus:
Rob has played the best game and has great odds of winning it all, he just has to get through the next Tribal Council and then he’s home free.