The biggest moment of the game so far happen in Survivor 49 episode 4. The tribe swap shook things up for the Hina and Uli tribes, who had yet to lose a challenge and go to Tribal Council, for the first time in the game.
After the tribe swap, the deck reshuffled, and now, Survivor 49 looks a lot more challenging for three players. This list would have included Matt Williams, but he was voted out in episode 4 and was the fifth player to leave the game.
Of the 13 players remaining, we shared the three player who are in major trouble in Survivor 49 after the tribe swap.
Sage Ahrens-Nichols
Sage Ahrens-Nichols started the game on the Uli tribe. While she wasn't in the core four alliance of Savannah Louie, Nate Moore, Rizo Velovic, and Shannon Fairweather, she was in a reasonably safe spot. She made a bold move in targeting Savannah before they even lost an immunity challenge, but I do think that Jawan Pitts would have had a much more challenging time sticking around on the Uli tribe because he was more of a threat, moving forward.
Now, Sage is in a tough spot in the minority on the new Kele tribe. While she has a friend-ish in Shannon, Sage is still on the outside looking in on a tribe with four former Hina players. We know that the Hina players had a plan to stick together, based on Matt and Jason Treul's hesitancy to fully join the former Uli players on the new Hina tribe.
Sage has a lot of work to do to make the merge, but Survivor is a weird game. Sage isn't the most threatening player in the game, and that could be a good thing for her game moving forward.
Shannon Fairweather
Shannon, on the other hand, appears to be in a much less safe position than Sage because she's actually a big threat. She's solid in challenges, and she has a core alliance with her three biggest allies on a different beach. We don't know if Sage will use that against her and sell her out to the former Hina players, but that's what appeared to be happening in the Next Time on Survivor preview.
It's never easy for a player like Shannon. She's leaving comfort behind and truly having to survive. If the Hina players are as loyal as it seems like they are, it's a no-brainer to vote out Shannon. And, you'll also have Alex Moore, who was a Kele player, joining up with majority to take out the former Uli players. That's what Sophi Balerdi did on the other tribe, and it just makes sense to do that rather than align with the minority and hope to flip one of the former Hina players.
Jason Treul
Along that same reasoning, Jason Treul is also in huge trouble in Survivor 49. He almost got voted out in episode 4, but the former Uli players chose Matt instead. Jason is a huge asset in challenges. He's the best puzzler out there in Fiji, and if he can continue to show those assets, his tribe doesn't have many good reasons to vote him out... except that he doesn't really seem like he wants to play with them.
Jason really fumbled the bag in this episode in my opinion. It's never easy to be in the minority immediately after a tribe swap, but you can't under any circumstances opt not to participate in the way that he did. You have to blow smoke, lie, and kiss the ring until you have a move to make. Jason didn't want to play with the former Uli players and betray Matt, but that was a huge red flag for Savannah and the rest of the tribe.
At some point, you have to play the hand you're dealt, and it felt like Jason basically folded. They kept him around because Matt was more threatening with his bold gameplay, but Jason didn't do himself any favors. Now, he's even further on the outside looking in than he probably should be.
There are other players in a lot of trouble in Survivor 49, too, but these three players are in very tough spots heading into episode 5.
Watch Survivor 49 episode 5, "I'm a Wolf, Baby," on Wednesday, Oct. 22, on CBS and Paramount+.