Since he started the On Fire podcast, Jeff Probst has been an open book about how Survivor works behind the scenes. Usually, Uncle Jeff, as he has been known this season, shares some of his initial reactions he had about players in the casting process.
In the latest episode of the podcast, Jeff told Jay Wolff and Jeremy Collins that he thought Nate Moore, who was just voted out of Survivor 49 and became the first member of the jury, could have actually won Survivor 49 if he played his cards right.
Unfortunately, Nate was voted out in episode 7, right after the merge.
Jeff spoke at length about what he loved about Nate and why he thought he could win.
"I hated losing Nate. My first time talking to him, I wrote, home run, so good at understanding social group dynamics. He's very, very switched on to people and drive and motivation. He comes across as very perceptive and very good at connecting with people. So that might put a little target on him, but he's very friendly and laid back. Then on our CBS Zoom, I want to talk to him at Tribal.
"That's about as good as it gets for me. If I write down, I want to talk to you at Tribal, that means I want you on the show. And one of my notes was he always offers a very clear point of view. And then in person when we met him, I loved him. I wrote, no doubt, great to talk to. And being in Hollywood might give him a bit of a head start in that he's been in the room.
"He's been in situations where he's had to pull something off and make everybody happy and not even have people know he pulled anything off. Like we talked about earlier this season when he was with MC. So the last thing I wrote is, 'could win with the right group,' which I don't say about everybody.”
That's honestly the highest praise we've heard from Jeff about a player in a long time. Sure, Jeff probably likes everyone they cast these days because that's kind of part of the show. It's meant to entertain, but it seems like good storytellers are a premium in Survivor's new era, and Nate is an incredible storyteller. You don't achieve the things he has in his professional life without being a good storyteller.
On top of that, Nate just had a good vibe and feel for Survivor. That was clear from Day 1, but he obviously made a few mistakes and miscalculations. I know Shannon Fairweather was the first real blindside of the season, but Nate's felt different. It felt like those players were really taking a shot at someone who could go far in the game, and it landed.
So, Jeff was right to believe Nate could win Survivor 49. Had a few moves broken Nate's way or Nate was able to find an idol or let Rizo play his idol on him, this game looks a lot different right now. Nate could definitely be in a power position heading into the most important stretch of the game.
According to TV Insider, Nate told Rizo not to play his idol for him, which is really interesting. Rizo almost needed Nate more than Nate needed Rizo in that moment. Now, Rizo is a key target, and that idol in his pocket is only going to get him through one vote. There are still four votes left before finale, at least. Now, he's going to have to get his grafting on.
Thankfully, Nate didn't seem all that torn up about losing Survivor 49. I think, when he looks back at how close he actually was to winning, he might feel a little differently.
Nate's vote out reminds me a lot of Gabe Ortis in Survivor 47. Gabe made it a little further in the game, but if Gabe made it through that vote, he had a clear path to the end. It's a little murkier for Nate because he'd have to take out strong allies in Rizo and Savannah Louie to win the game. But, we saw how Nate used his skills to manipulate MC Chukwujekwu during that Journey. He can play this game on another level. He just didn't get to fully show that this season.
Watch new episodes of Survivor 49 on Wednesday nights on CBS and Paramount+!