For as exciting as Survivor 49 has been, it's also been pretty tame. Watching the starting Kele tribe completely fall apart week-after-week created intense action over at the blue beach—a hunt for the immunity idol, a medical evacuation, and general starvation and heat-induced descent into paranoia and panic—but on the opposite side of the scale we had Hina and Uli sitting pretty.
Yes, the top tribes were also building relationships and setting up long-term social game plans, but there are still three players from original Hina who have not attended a Tribal Council—MC Chukwujekwu, Kristina Mills, and Sophie Segreti—after 12 days in the game. That means 27% of the remaining players haven't once experienced a genuine lack of safety for nearly half of the game.
Another tribe swap leaves no room for error
The last 8 seasons of Survivor have brought all our players together when around 12 or 13 people are left in the game. There's often been a challenge leading to one or two final votes before Jeff Probst officially hands out the merge buffs to the remaining 11 or 12 castaways. But this season, instead of bringing everyone together at 12, production decided to divide them up further.
After splitting 14 players into two tribes, going back to three tribes is truly a game-changing twist. Being in a group of 4 is a very dangerous place to be because there is no wiggle room for doubt or misgivings. Either you have 3 or you are being lied to and there is no in between. A 2-2 vote will only work if you have a trick up your sleeve, which none of the players attending Tribal Council had, so they had to go in completely sure of their vote.
Not only that, but when that vote goes against what the superficial majority looks like in the game—especially when that's been the voting pattern over the last couple of weeks—you not only need a plan on what's happening at Tribal Council, but, more importantly, what's happening after Tribal Council. And for Jawan Pitts and Sage Ahrens-Nichols, what happens next is going to be critical to the success of their games.
Which power duos are in the best position going into the merge?
Savannah Louie & Rizo Velovic: Whether they realize it or not, Savannah and Rizo are each other's no. 1's in this game. Fate has put them on the same tribe together since the beginning and now with Savannah's actual day 1 ally—Shannon Fairweather—out of the game, they're going to need to hang tight to each other as they navigate what the new Uli alliance looks like.
While they definitely no longer have Sage, it's highly likely that Jawan will want to rejoin the group, proving his loyalty by any means necessary. This will make him both a valuable and dangerous player for Savannah and Rizo to keep in their pocket.
Alex Moore & Sophi Balerdi: As the last two original Kele members, Alex and Sophi were already in good positions going into the tribe swap as the Uli vs. Hina war officially broke out and the two blue players were immediately recruited as numbers for one tribe or the other. They are especially valuable because they have yet to be reunited since Sophi went over to team Uli and Alex seemed to integrate a little bit into team Hina with Sage.
When they are finally brought back together at the merge, while on the surface they might appear to have gone on separate paths, they are actually in the perfect position to move forward together—while they didn't get along at the beginning, fighting over Jake Latimer's allegiance, his exit gave them a common thread in the game that might keep them connected even now—with Sophi's ear on the ground with the Uli alliance and Alex's with the Hina group.
They have the potential to be all-knowing and take control of the game, which is even more beneficial now that Sophi has the Knowledge is Power advantage. Rizo is the only person currently in possession of an idol in the game, but should that change and she or Alex learn through the grapevine of their alliance, they can use the advantage in their favor and make a huge move at the right moment.
The game is finally heating up and I can't wait to see what happens next week when we finally get the merge we've been waiting for and see who is first to go: a Hina or an Uli?