What if Paschal Doesn’t Draw the Purple Rock in Survivor: Marquesas?

Going to the rock draw has always been presented as a dramatic moment on Survivor, but what if the original rock draw had turned out differently?

After over 30 seasons of Survivor, there are still some things players go out of their way to avoid doing. One of them happens to be drawing rocks at Tribal Council. It’s an unnecessary risk in a game all about managing risks properly. Now, a tie can also be used to your advantage, should you have a Hidden Immunity Idol up your sleeve, but the original rock draw predated the Hidden Immunity Idol.

Take a journey back with us to Marquesas, the fourth season of Survivor ever, and its final four. Here it is, the very first rock draw:

As you can see, the final four of Marquesas couldn’t decide on someone to actually eliminate. There’s a bit of needed context here. Paschal and Neleh had formed a basically-unbreakable alliance throughout the entire season. There was no way they would have voted each other out. With Vecepia immune, they had to target Kathy. Meanwhile, Kathy had worked with all three of the remaining players, as had Vecepia. They targeted Neleh in return.

Only Vecepia avoided the draw. We’ll start by trying to play out what would have happened if Neleh had drawn the purple rock.

Neleh went to the final two in Marquesas thanks to a Final Immunity Challenge deal with Vecepia that involved giving Immunity over. Presumably, Vee would have cut the same deal and still won, but with Kathy over Paschal. After all, no one had ever voted for Paschal during the entire season. That alone would have given him a wonderful case to make at Final Tribal Council. Vecepia won by a vote of 4-3 in the original game.

Presumably, Kathy could have won the game, but not everyone liked her, either. It seems safe to say that Paschal and Neleh would have been a jury block of two votes. However, Paschal seemed to like both of the original final two, so the vote could have ended up as 5-2 for Vecepia, shifting both him and Neleh to the Vecepia column.

Now, if Kathy had gone out, then Vecepia would also have had her pick between Paschal and Neleh after winning the Final Immunity Challenge. For similar reasons as in the original game, we see Vecepia going once again with Neleh over Paschal, since he was more likable, and the game playing out similarly from there.

Next: What if Jeff Kent Had Been Found Out?

In other words, although the drawing of the purple rock may have served as a watershed moment in the game of Survivor, it probably didn’t affect the game of Marquesas all that much.