Survivor Ghost Island: Why was ________ voted out in 13th place?

After a Survivor merge boot for the ages, Chris Noble was blindsided after making several decisions that were truly shocking.

Chris going home at the merge? I thought it was very possible. The Dom vs. Chris battle was being built up for a while now, and now they finally had a chance to go at each other.  However, the circumstances surrounding Chris’s elimination are mind-boggling, even for Survivor.  He should never have gone home tonight!

Chris began the episode with a great stroke of luck. He picked the black merge buff with the idol clue. As a viewer, this changed my viewpoint on the episode entirely. I thought he was certainly safe, and potentially extending Dom vs. Chris’ war for another week.

We see his night trip to Ghost Island, where J.T.’s idol is waiting for him. He has the option to play a game for the risk of his next vote, and I agree with his decision here. At the very worst, he forfeits a vote at the next Tribal Council, where he has an idol that he has to play at the same time. He gains one extra Tribal Council for the idol, which would be the expected value for the game.

At camp, Domenick and Wendell want to patch things up with him. They even acknowledge that they are going to be going after Chris later. While this is far from typical on Survivor, they were saying what all three of the guys were thinking. However, Chris completely rejects their short-term peace offering! Even if you are going to stab them in the back, you should always agree with your enemy. This could keep them from going after Chris, allowing Chris to go after Dom and Wendell without them totally expecting it.

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After the challenge, Chris pulls everyone other than of Dom and Wendell in for a talk. By everyone, I mean literally every person on the tribe except those two. Instead of trying to gauge his tribe member’s thoughts, Chris does all of the talking. If the tribe was not already annoyed with Chris, this has to put it over the top. Dictating a plan to 10 other players is never a good thing in Survivor. He needed to hear his fellow tribemates out before stating his passionate case. He was steamrolling his tribe.

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This is where Chris needs to realize that people are not definitely on his side. Other players are going to tell you what you want to hear. He already knows he at least getting votes from Dom and Wendell, so as long as there is any degree of doubt in his mind, he should be playing his idol. If Chris’s tribe is with him, he is probably going to be safe at the next Tribal Council, so the idol would not have much use anyways.

Let’s fast forward to Tribal Council, where Domenick is openly berating Chris. He is actively painting a target on his back. As a viewer, I was looking forward to the shocked reactions when Chris got to stay around for another week. Mr. Noble had other plans for our post-vote enjoyment.

Domenick plays the Legacy Advantage, and now Chris should immediately get up and play his idol. His ultimate plan was to split the votes between Dom and Wendell, and even if Chris is pretty sure the vote is going his way, he should play it safe here. The war was happening now, not at Final 12. I feel like I am saying the same thing over and over, but it seems so obvious. If Chris wins this war against Dom, he is probably safe anyways at Final 12! It was his first Tribal Council, so he should have shown extra caution.

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What should have been an automatic idol play has turned into a blunder worthy of a place on Survivor Ghost Island 2.0, as Chris didn’t register that a player yelling his name should mean he should play his idol. Overconfidence took the best of him, and it caused his demise.