Survivor: David vs. Goliath episode 4 – Caught in the waves

During Wednesday’s crazy episode of Survivor, Alec Merlino made a shocking move by blindsiding his former tribe members. Was this a smart move?

The simple answer is no, Alec’s “big move” was an impulsive and unnecessary blindside. During Tribal Council, Alec had a change of heart and whispered in Elizabeth’s ear to change her vote to Natalia. Next thing you know, Natalia is pissed as she watches her torch being snuffed out as the fifth person sent home from Survivor: David vs. Goliath.

Alec Merlino certainly made a big move, the question is if it was the right move? In the game Survivor, alliances and shifts in power can happen unexpectedly, so there’s always a chance that the blindside Alec pulled off could eventually help his case. However, when you look at the facts, it doesn’t look good for the surfer dude. Here are a few reasons why Alec’s move wasn’t a smart one.

The Goliath tribe had an overwhelming advantage. Each of the three newly swapped tribes had more Goliaths than Davids. It looked like a cakewalk. Yes, it’s always wise to look for an opportunity to take out a big threat, especially if you’re sitting comfortably in the majority, but on a five-person tribe, this wasn’t the right time.

In this episode, when Elizabeth was trying to persuade Alec to flip, he brought out a great point. How would it look on him when other Goliath members realize that he betrayed them? Too bad Alec didn’t listen to himself. If there’s another a swap coming up, Alec could be in serious trouble.

His decision was an emotional one, not a logical one. If you think back, try to remember why he voted out Natalia. Was it to advance himself further in the game? Was it to get rid of a dynamic threat? No! It was because he wanted to make a big move and Natalia was getting a little too paranoid for him.

The bottom line is Alec made the move because of how he felt, and feelings can be influenced easily. Davie picked up on Natalia’s angst, and he used his cool and calm persona to appeal to Alec. He let Davie manipulate how he felt about his current position, and that factored in his final decision. So in reality, it was really Davie and to a lesser extent Elizabeth who made this blindside happen, while Alec was just the puppet.

It made Alec’s position on his current tribe much worse. This just requires simple math. Alec flipped his position in Survivor from a three-two majority to a two-three minority. Yes, he made the Davids happy and that will probably buy him some time, especially if they can win immunities. That being said, since Alec is likely in the minority now, he no longer has control over the vote if they were to go to Tribal Council. Having the power to sway votes on a tribe of just five people is huge, and Alec just lost that privilege.

These three factors put Alec Merlino in a scary position going forward. It’s a little early to tell how big of a mistake this blindside was, and because it’s so early on in the season, things can change fast. But for the time being, we’ll look back at this Tribal Council as a big move that didn’t have to be made.