Survivor: David vs. Goliath – History of a 13 person merge

Survivor: David vs. Goliath marks only the fifth time that 13 castaways make the merge! Those other four seasons were some of the best in recent years.

Remember when Survivor almost always merged with ten people left? Times have changed, and production has wisely noticed that the bigger the merge, the greater the drama. So now it’s time to breakdown what happened in those four other seasons that merged with 13 castaways, and what that tells us about this season.

Season 31 – Cambodia (Second Chance)

If you thought the Davids were outnumbered during this season, look no further than Second Chance. At the time of the merge, only four original Ta Keo members were left, compared to nine Bayon castaways. But for this season, tribal lines weren’t indicative of where allegiances stood.

Survivor: Cambodia taught us that when you combine returning players with tribal swaps and an early merge, the result is temporary “voting blocs” compared to solid alliances. These conflicting and shifting allegiances are what made this season so exciting to watch.

Since our current season of Survivor is made up of all new players, does this mean we won’t see this type of gameplay? My guess is that David vs. Goliath won’t have the same constantly shifting allegiances, but by no means are we going to see one alliance just dominate the other. We saw evidence of strong social and strategic play pre-merge, just like our next 13 player merge season.

Season 33 – Millennials vs. Gen X

This might be the most similar season to Survivor: David vs. Goliath at this point. Both editions had themed tribes that nurtured two different mindsets. The pre-merge game was also very comparable, as we witnessed a few exciting Tribal Councils including Jay blindsiding Michaela, which is a parallel move to Alec flipping on Natalia.

These two seasons even have the same numbers coming into the merge; one tribe with seven members and the other with six. However, for Millennials vs. Gen X, it didn’t come down to original tribal lines. Smaller core alliances stuck together, forming “trust clusters” as Hannah Shapiro coined it. These groups of voters formed together to get rid of bigger threats like Zeke, Jay, and Will.

This is a voting trend that I think we will see in David vs. Goliath. There are already several tight-knit pairings that are solid, as well as other groupings that have been forming gradually after the tribe swap. This includes Christian and Gabby, Dan and Kara, Mike and Nick, Davie and Carl, the Brochachos, and more. We could see some of these mini alliances joining together for a vote or two in order to blindside common threats.

Season 34 – Game Changers

This season proved to bring a different dynamic as opposed to other returning player seasons. There were constant power shifts and blindsides, which led to popular players getting voted out early while the questionable “game changers” made it deeper into the game.

This was again an example of how original tribal lines didn’t have a big impact on post-merge alliances. It was almost as if there was a constant cycle. When one player came up with a plan to blindside a big threat, that plan was executed. But because of their big move, they became the castaway to get blindsided during the next Tribal Council.

Players including Debbie, Zeke, and Andrea all got their torches snuffed the Tribal Council after pulling off a big blindside. That being said, I doubt we’re going to see this extent of aggressive gameplay from a group of new castaways. If anything, I could see a majority voting together once or twice to send home a dangerous threat like Dan, Davie or Angelina.

Season 36 – Ghost Island

The latest season of Survivor brought us the case of two players dominating the rest. Out of the four seasons we analyzed, this is the only one where original tribal lines played a significant factor. The Naviti tribe entered the merge with eight original members compared to Malolo’s five.

Dom and Wendell were part of the majority Naviti tribe and they appeared to stay Naviti strong to get rid of the Malolo threats. All the while, they secretly formed an alliance with Laurel and Donathan from the other tribe. These two alliances allowed Dom and Wendell to hold the power for most of the post-merge game.

Could we see a pair or small group manipulate the rest of the castaways in David vs. Goliath? The only people who seem capable enough to pull off this strategic plan are Christian, Gabby, Nick or Mike. At the same time, there are still a lot of smart players left in the game including Angelina, Davie, Kara and even Carl. So I don’t think this season will be ruled by a Dom and Wendell type of pairing.

Millennials vs. Gen X and Second Chance gave us quite a few memorable Survivor moments following the merge. Sure, Game Changers wasn’t what we expected and Ghost Island wasn’t very competitive, but they both displayed some of the greatest players to ever play the game. So get your popcorn ready, after an already amazing pre-merge, it looks like we’re poised for one of the greatest seasons of the modern Survivor era!