Survivor David vs. Goliath merge edgic: Who can still win?

When the Survivor: David vs. Goliath merge episode approaching, the field of potential winners will narrow. With tribes converging, who still has a shot?

Though I’ve already given a number of reasons why the Survivor: David vs. Goliath pre-merge phase has been one of the best in the show’s past dozen or so seasons, one thing I haven’t mentioned yet is how well balanced the edit is. It’s really difficult to know who’s going to win the season, as nobody or no two or three people are running away with it all.

Of course, the merge episode is a huge determinant for the most important players, as those with strong pre-merge games like Ryan Ulrich and Chris Noble either burn out immediately or fade away over time. If players who previously led alliances and making moves are pushed to the side, you can quickly strike them off the list.

For now, ahead of the Survivor: David vs. Goliath merge, our edgic chart and discussion will talk about those we feel can win the game after six episodes:

Top winner contenders

Nick Wilson (CP5): So far, Nick’s the only player who has had a complex personality in every single episode of the season. I do have worries about him being overexposed early, but a lot of his content so far has been necessary for his short-term and long-term goals. He’s been to Tribal Council three times, he’s offered winner quotes and lived up to his real-life job as a public defender.

The biggest fear right now is that his leadership facade might be cracking, as we didn’t get to see how Mike convinced him to vote his way. Overall, Nick’s primed to be either a winner or one of the finalists. His connections and decisions shine through the edit strongly.

Kara Kay (MOR2): I’m starting to get Michele Fitzgerald vibes from Kara; a player on the bottom of Vuku yet continues to get airtime and key player content. Of all the Goliath players, Kara’s edit has been the strongest. The only flaw in her game is that Elizabeth doesn’t trust her, and Elizabeth may very well be the merge boot.

With Angelina and Dan on her side, we’ll have to see if the majority holds their numbers advantage. Furthermore, I’d like to see Kara propel the conversations at the merge. With just five women at the merge, her edit is heaps above the rest of the field.

Davie Rickenbacker (UTR2): Though it wouldn’t be a traditional edit, Davie’s reads and game have been protected by what’s been shown onscreen. When he’s being blindsided, he’s not the target. When he’s not the focus, he’s still letting his positivity shine through and make his voice known. He’s also had the chance to show Devilish Davie without consequence, securing Alec’s flip on Natalia.

The biggest concern is his lack of allies. Carl’s his closest ally, but Carl seems to have one task left before he fades back into obscurity. Alec, his Vuku buddy, wants to work with Christian in the episode’s preview. Davie’s got fewer strikes against him but fewer pluses benefitting him, as well.

Christian Hubicki (OTTP4): Finally, finally, finally, I can put Christian in the top 4 of our Survivor: David vs. Goliath merge edgic. His premiere episode painted him way too goofy, and he is easily one of the most overexposed players of this pre-merge phase. However, on top of his great content, he’s finally received more personal positive content that builds him into the Goliath he’s sought to be.

I am concerned that he’s a merge boot target, and it’s possible that he’s undergoing a growth edit. However, considering the theme being Survivor: David vs. Goliath, I’m not sure how a David winner would not receive something similar to a journey edit en route to victory.

Middling winner chances

Mike White (CPP5): Similar to Nick, Mike started out as his tribe’s first potential boot but has worked well in the middle to make his voice heard without rustling any feathers. The biggest boost to his edit came in the most recent episode, where he was given the heroic fanfare as Jabeni utterly fell apart. He also managed to out-leverage Nick and vote out Lyrsa to keep Goliaths strong; something that will earn him power at the merge.

Where he goes from here is up in the air. I think he has a semi-deep merge run in him, as he’s not that huge of a threat while still being connected well with those David and Goliath players.

John Hennigan (UTR1): After starting out as an over-the-top wrestling personality, John has received a few cooldown episodes lately. He’s been too quiet for my liking, unfortunately, as he’s been under the radar during Tiva sections of the post-swap phase. He’s been a foil for Christian while Dan, Alison and Gabby are making moves.

One thing that helps him earn the benefit of the doubt is his “secret geek” edit. Being labeled almost as a David in bloom works well in a season where we’re supposed to cheer for the underdogs is a great sign.

Gabby Pascuzzi (CPP3): Gabby saved herself from edgic obscurity with the final pre-merge episode, as she now has the potential to start her second-half transformation. I fully believe that Gabby is the benefactor of the strongest “growth edit” that falls just short (somewhere in the 3rd to 5th-place spots), as she’s had too many episodes where the edit shows her almost helpless.

By reaching out to Alison, these two can start to build up their resumes at the merge and start to play the game more confidently. Perhaps she can win, but I think she’s been buried like Hannah Shapiro in Millennials vs. Gen X.

Outside looking in

Carl Boudreaux (MOR2): Once thought to get the biblical hero edit, Carl has quickly faded into the background. His edit now screams of “person with the shiny new Survivor trinket,” as he’s been rather invisible ever since earning the Idol Nullifier. He has the best chance to make an appearance at the merge, as he can potentially use it against Dan in a pivotal vote.

Elizabeth Olson (OTTM3): While Elizabeth was up and down our Survivor: David vs. Goliath edgic chart all season, I believe she’s been given too harsh of an edit in the most recent episode. When she gets almost tearful about her back situation and Carl and Davie aren’t empathetic, it does not come off well for her social game.

Plus, when she gave that eldritch troll/pouting Sandy Cheeks impression when talking about her frustrations in a confessional, it did not come off well. It tanked her sympathy to the audience, which helps lessen the blow of an elimination.

Slim pickings

Alison Raybould (CP3): Alison was the Goliath offered up to the season’s theme to exemplify the idea of not knowing what the advantage is, not who has it. Plus, the doctor looked privileged in contrast to the Davids, plus she was overconfident in the opening challenge only to get smoked by Lyrsa and Christian.

She was almost invisible until this most recent episode where she makes a bond with Gabby and begins the plot to take down Dan Rengering. While it’s great to see her character develop, it’s way too little, too late for her winner chances.

Dan Rengering (MOR2): It’s too obvious at this point that Dan is being set up in this game. He’s shown to be overconfident in just how amazing he’s played the game despite going to Tribal Council just once and the voting target tried to get him out and reveal his Hidden Immunity Idol. Dan could make it to finale night, but he doesn’t have a winner story in him.

Angelina Keeley (CPN5): Tony Vlachos and Sarah Lacina respectively showed that you can be a villain and win the game. Angelina’s villain edit wasn’t as humorous as his nor as conniving or strong in gameplay as hers; she just looks like someone who will do anything to steal peoples’ jackets. She looked super embarrassing at that Tribal Council, and it has tanked her winner chances, in my opinion.

Alec Merlino (UTR1): He’s still on the show? He’s certainly going to try to make big moves at the merge, but when he only shows up when it’s important for a vote, it could be him that ends up being the Sarah Lacina-like “vote out the middle” target.