Survivor: David vs. Goliath – Odds point to a Goliath winner

It’s merge time on Survivor: David vs. Goliath! Seven original Goliath members and six Davids. The numbers are nearly even, but the stats favour a Goliath winner.

In the modern era of Survivor, tribe swaps and strategic gameplay have flourished. As a result, we see less of one tribe obliterating the other once the merge hits. With a group of socially dynamic and strategic threats, Survivor: David vs. Goliath appears to fit into that same mold. However, the stats from previous Survivor Seasons are actually quite shocking.

For the past 17 seasons, only two castaways have won after being in the minority when the merge hit! That means 15 out of the last 17 Sole Survivors came from a tribe that entered the merge with more or the same amount of players compared to the other tribe.

The numbers look even grimmer when you focus on the seasons that only began with two tribes like our current season. It wasn’t since Survivor: Samoa when the “Foa Foa Four” beat out the odds and outlasted the eight Galu members following the merge. That was nine years ago! Even for seasons when alliances shifted, a person from the original tribe that had greater numbers coming into the merge always won!

What does that mean for Survivor: David vs. Goliath then? Will a David member be able to break this curse? Is it realistic to say that a Goliath will win for sure? Although it’s an interesting statistical trend, anything can happen.

Also, the original David members have such a wide range of characters giving several of them a realistic shot of winning. Christian or Gabby could win if they can create a solid alliance that can eliminate the big threats early on. Nick’s social and strategic game has been brilliant, and his personal alliances could carry him through each Tribal Council.

Davie is the type of player that could make game-changing moves that would earn him the respect of the jury if he manages to make Final Tribal. Even Carl seems like a potential winner, who would benefit from the big threats taking each other out while he sits back without pissing anyone off.

The point is, that despite the strong mathematical evidence, original David members have the social and strategic skills to potentially win the title of Sole Survivor.