Survivor: David vs. Goliath finale: Can Alison Raybould win the game?

One of the biggest challenge threats is two votes and a fire-making challenge away from the end. Can Alison Raybould win Survivor: David vs. Goliath?

Ironically, there’s no hiding the fact that Alison Raybould has been the least visible player of Survivor: David vs. Goliath. Her storyline saw her start as the strongest woman of the game, the Goliath champion of the Goliaths from Day 1, only to maintain that threat level throughout the merge and towards the end. Can she navigate her way to the end?

Alison’s chances of making Final Tribal

For the past three Tribal Councils, Alison has received votes. Her name has come up as the primary target for some and the false distraction target for others for a while now, indicating how much of a threat she is to the players. Considering that Christian is now voted out of the game, the only players that would likely be voted ahead of her is Nick and Davie.

Both of those players are the only remaining Davids left in the game, and she has voted along the same voting lines and interests as Mike and Kara since she has received votes at Tribal Council. This bodes well for her chances to stay Goliath strong for at least one vote, and she has proven to perform well in Immunity Challenges necessary to keep herself safe until the Final Four.

Unless Kara turns on her closest ally or Mike, Christian and Davie pull off a blindside at Final Six that doesn’t involve a rock draw, I think Alison has a good chance of making it to the Final Four. Perhaps she is too dominant a challenge threat to keep around until the fire-making challenge that she doesn’t make it to the end.

Alison’s chances of receiving votes at Final Tribal

The problem with determining Alison’s Final Tribal Council vote chances is that you have to ignore the fact that she doesn’t have the edit of someone who sits at the end pleading her case for a win. With the exception of a Natalie White win with a coattail-rider with an obvious high profile player like Russell Hantz, you don’t hide an FTC finalist like this.

Considering the makeup of the jury so far, she has a chance to gather some Goliath votes depending on if Goliath eats its majority leading to the Final Tribal Council. If Mike White and Kara Kay are voted out, they could easily join Alec, John, Gabby in voting for Alison. However, that situation would mean two of Davie, Nick and Angelina would sit beside her at the end, and I feel there’s no way Alison receives the majority of votes.

A wild “would never happen” scenario, where she’s sitting beside Angelina and Mike at the end, would be her strongest case, but even then you have to wonder if Mike’s ability to control the votes and maintain his “Goliath strong” mantra will take precedence over Alison’s threat level in the game.

Overall Rundown: I believe that Alison has to win Immunity each time in the finale to have enough of a resume to outwit, outplay and outlast the competition and become the Sole Survivor. Even then, it needs to be in a weakened Goliath-only field, making it very unlikely (read: near impossible) for Alison Raybould to win David vs. Goliath.