Only one player has been on the right side of every vote and hasn’t seen their name written down. Can Victoria Baamonde win Survivor: Edge of Extinction?
There’s a lot to say about your name not being on the lips of others in Survivor. As Richard Hatch showed from the very beginning of this game, it’s not about who can make a great shelter or who can win a ton of Immunity Challenges (although he did win a fire-making one); it’s about forming alliances and creating long-lasting bonds.
Let’s take a look at the best player to embody the spirit of the original Survivor strategic game; Victoria Baamonde.
Victoria’s chances of making Final Tribal
Depending on how things shake up and who returns from the Edge of Extinction, Victoria could be set up well to make it to the Final Tribal Council. She has the trust of Gavin and Lauren (to a lesser extent after this recent vote), and all eyes are on getting out Rick Devens, possibly Lauren and likely Gavin.
When it comes to having meat shields ahead of her, she might be the most well-protected player left in the game. This notion is only shattered if someone like Aubry Bracco or Joe Anglim returns, as they would likely team up with Rick, Lauren and possibly Julie for at least one round to get rid of either Gavin or herself.
Even in that situation, I would find it hard for Joe to not be the biggest target for elimination due to his threat level. Aubry is the only player who should stand in her way from making the Final Tribal Council, as Victoria is a relatively small minnow in a sea of sharks at the Final Six.
Victoria’s chances of receiving votes at Final Tribal
Here is where things get tricky. It’s easy to see, from multiple perspectives, how well Victoria is doing in Survivor: Edge of Extinction. We understand how much she knew about each vote and how much impact she had in either going with the flow or dictating who would be sent home. She’s had an ear in many conversations.
However, depending on this unique jury format, who knows if they will reward that kind of strategy. It’s easy to go the Sandra Diaz-Twine “anybody but me” route, but harder is it actually to win the hearts of the jury. Considering the only vote she commandeered was Aubry’s in the pre-merge, she falls more into this season’s notion of being a passenger, not a pilot.
Not every jury will value the same things from season to season, and the Edge of Extinction group has been fighting hard for weeks to stay alive and make it for one last push. They might not reward passivity as ambition, but laziness, especially when returning players from the big moves era will be a formidable portion of the jury that likely has sway in deliberations.
Before we even look at whose votes Victoria can win, let’s look at who would be sitting beside her. Rick is a non-starter, and she’ll need Julie if she can guarantee herself an even shot with another player. Maybe she can beat Lauren if the jury, too, sees her passivity in the game as a detriment with a jury of primarily Kama players.
I’m not sure she beats Gavin, either, as he has taken out big players and won multiple Immunity Challenges. The Edgers might even vote a returnee if they make it to the end, as they have shared a kinship on an island with nothing to do but talk and get to know one another.
Verdict
Even if Victoria sits beside a goat and someone else tanks their game between the Final Six and Final Three, she needs to suddenly build an impressive resume starting on Day 36. Her Aubry blindside was impressive, and she may get a handful of votes from Kama people she fooled earlier, but I think she makes it to the end as a possible second or third-place finisher, depending on the circumstances of who returns from the Edge of Extinction.