10) Wardog
Odds of winning the challenge:
Let’s face it, there probably hasn’t been anyone as disappointing at challenges this season than Wardog. He has never been able to get anything going regardless of what the challenge requires.
Chances of winning the game:
Wardog has played an impressive strategic game that got cut short because he became too big of a threat. If he somehow made it back, he’d have to survive three Tribal Councils, and I can’t see that happening. His threat level hasn’t changed and he won’t be going on an immunity run anytime soon.
9) Julia Carter
Odds of winning the challenge:
Julia has been one of the most athletic players of the season, winning an Individual Immunity, plus performing really well in team challenges. She has displayed remarkable puzzle-making skills and physical prowess. The only concerns are tough competition and a poor edit.
Chances of winning the game:
If she would reenter the game, I still think the remaining castaways will view Rick as a bigger threat. Additionally, Julia was close to Victoria, and to a lesser extent Gavin. She might be able to rejoin them and make it to the end. I hate to base her odds on this season’s wonky edit, but having no confessionals in the first five episodes is not a sign of a winner.