Australian Survivor 2019 Final Four power rankings: Bloody rippers

Ten Network
Ten Network /

With just four players and four more days left in the game, Australian Survivor 2019 power rankings look at the win probabilities of the Final Four.

This is it; after countless hours of Stephen, David, and Janine running the show, Australian Survivor 2019 has said farewell to all of them. Now only Luke, Baden, Pia, and Harry remain in the game, each with limited legroom as they squirm past each other en route to the half-million-dollar prize.

It could be anybody’s game, depending on how the next two eliminations go about. Sure, there

are some players

is one player that would absolutely, 100% win sitting beside anybody, but any other combination of three players makes for an interesting conversation. Plus, there’s the fact that each has to get to the end of the game in the first place!

Here is how we see the odds of the Australian Survivor 2019 Final Four winning the game in our power rankings!

4. Baden

There’s nothing that 22 episodes of this season have provided to convince me that Baden will win the season. He’s played a great middle game with the intention of being taken to the end, but I feel the jury would view him as dragged to the end, instead (if he makes it that far). He hasn’t won a competition, he hasn’t been controlling any votes so far, and he has middling-at-best relationships with the Champion-majority jury.

If Baden wins the next two Immunity Challenges and manages to take out both Luke then Harry, he may have an outside shot at winning a vote against Pia. Those would be huge late-game moves that may be enough to have the jury begrudgingly vote for him. However, I don’t think he’s made enough inroads to make a convincing case, and that one scenario is the only way I think he wins.

Baden would have to become a player we haven’t seen in the majority of Australian Survivor 2019, and I haven’t been shown any reason why to think he’s capable of flipping that switch.

3. Harry

Dirty Harry has been a cockroach that escapes death at every turn, and for him to make it to the Final Four is nothing short of miraculous. Marked for death ever since the tribe swap, he’s been in the center of many voting plans. Despite being on the outside of the numbers, he’s adapted to multiple scenarios and came out on the other side each time.

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If Luke wins another immunity at the Final Four, then it will be interesting to see who is targeted next. Harry and Baden have been allies of circumstances for some time now, but both will be willing to vote for the other if an offer guaranteed them to Final Three forced it. I could foresee Luke and Pia wanting to get Harry out and Baden agreeing to further himself in that scenario.

Harry also has a tough road to winning over Luke and Pia, as well. I feel the jury would rather vote those two, which would mean either winning his first immunity (he’s the least physically fit of the four for the final two challenges of the game) at an opportune time and hope for the best to see him sitting beside Baden at the end.

There are too many “if, then” scenarios for me to be confident in Harry, but I can see him pull it off.

2. Luke

Luke is, by far, the best player to grace Australian Survivor. Period. I don’t need to go over scenarios over who he has to sit with at the end; he can sit beside anybody and win, no matter what happens the next two rounds.

Why don’t I have him at the top of our Australian Survivor 2019 power rankings? Well, there’s a good reason for that; he needs to shatter individual immunity win single-season records for AU and US by winning his sixth within one game. Luke’s competition might allow him to do it, but he’s already won three in a row. The odds are stacked against him mightily, and he will be voted out at the first chance possible.

Plus, if there’s one thing that has felled Luke time and time again, it’s long endurance challenges. The Final Immunity Challenge has always been the same in the Ten Network reboot of Australian Survivor, harkening back to the early days of the US Version with a Hand on a Pole-style challenge.

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Luke has fought through immense pain on numerous occasions with these kinds of challenges, including the “hold a plank position,” “hold yourself up on a bar,” and other kinds of similar feats. If he can pull it off, he has shown to become one of the most well-rounded players in the show’s history and could make a case to be one of the best winners ever.

1. Pia

Statistically speaking, the numbers speak to Pia being the Sole Survivor of Australian Survivor 2019. Not only has she received the overwhelming amount of late-game push compared to a rather subdued edit early, but she’s a great player who has a masterful social game. Plus, she has multiple options ahead of her to get to the end (although not one beside Luke).

She’s likely going to make it to the end regardless because of the threat levels of players ahead of her. Even if Luke wins immunity at the Final Four, either the Champions will bring in Harry or Baden to take out the other or fate will be met with fire. From there, Luke would have to be eliminated if possible. Otherwise, nobody else wins.

Even if Luke is voted out at the Final Four, it’s in Pia and Baden’s best interests to take each other to the Final Tribal Council. Harry has upside at the end because of his ability to overcome adversity and fight through to the end despite being a target for half the game, but he has the worst chance at overcoming the endurance challenge of the three.

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Unless she loses in a natural Final Four fire-making challenge, I believe that Pia has the best odds of becoming the winner of the season.