Survivor Island of the Idols finale: Can Lauren Beck win the game?

Playing a strong social game and having a significant measure of control throughout most of Survivor: Island of the Idols puts Lauren in a good position to win it all.

There are only five castaways remaining in Survivor: Island of the Idols. Alliances have been all over the place between these five castaways, but one pairing has stood above the rest. Lauren and Tommy have formed a strong partnership, putting themselves in a powerful position ever since the early merge.

They have taken out several big names without raising their own threat levels. As much as Lauren will be linked to Tommy, she’s also played a great individual game, but will it be enough to earn the respect of the jury?

Lauren’s chances of making Final Tribal

It won’t be an easy path for Lauren to make it to the Final Three. As far as I can tell, it doesn’t seem that she’s especially good at making fire, so it could be a real challenge for her to get through the Final Four. If Lauren doesn’t win the Final Four Immunity Challenge, it’s hard for me to see anyone take her to the Final Three over Noura or Dean.

As a result, there’s a good chance that Lauren will be forced to make fire. If she’s up against Janet or Tommy, I can’t see her winning. That said, it would be a mistake to overlook the effect Lauren’s social game could have on the fire-making decision. The relationships she has developed from Day 1 might help her to convince Janet and Noura that it’s in their best interests to go after Dean and Tommy. That way if either two wins the Final Four immunity, they might decide to bring Lauren to the end along with them.

Lauren’s chances of receiving votes at Final Tribal

It’s going to be more of a challenge for Lauren to make the Final Three, as opposed to getting the jury to vote for her. Lauren has played a strong game throughout Island of the Idols. From directing a surprising blindside in her first Tribal Council to getting rid of plenty of big threats including Aaron, Elaine, and Kellee. The fact that she has still been able to keep a low profile in spite of these key moves is remarkable.

More from Island of the Idols

• Survivor Island of the Idols: These are the players you want to return
• Survivor Island of the Idols: Should Tommy Sheehan return?
• Survivor Island of the Idols: Should Dean Kowalski return?
• Survivor Island of the Idols: Should Noura Salman return?
• Survivor Island of the Idols: Should Lauren Beck return?

I might be wrong, but I’m sort of getting a vibe from the jury that they might feel a little more bitter towards Lauren than Tommy. That said, I could definitely see strategically minded jurors like Missy and maybe even Aaron putting their feelings aside and making Lauren’s smart gameplay clear to the jury.

The only situation I see Lauren losing is if she sits next to Tommy, which definitely could happen and would be a fun battle to watch. Their games are very similar, but the edit has certainly given Tommy the upper hand throughout this season. Besides Tommy, Lauren has the resume to beat anyone else.

Verdict

Lauren Beck has played a tremendous social and strategic game that might be enough to convince the jury, but it won’t be easy for her to survive the next two Tribal Councils. There’s a good chance we could see Lauren get her torch snuffed at five, or lose in the fire-making challenge at four.

If she can somehow manage to use her social skills to convince the women to keep her in the game, she might be able to squeeze her way into Final Tribal Council. If that happens, she might just be able to win, even if she has duel it out with Tommy at the end.