It is hard enough to predict who might win any Survivor season, let alone one that includes 24 players who have already played the game extremely well. That is the scenario we face heading into Survivor 50.
When you look at the biggest cast in game history, it is like, “Oh, this person could. Oh, so could he. Oh my gosh, she could win.” Based on how they've played in the past, you can see how most will have a big impact on this game, but it is impossible to pick just one person who might win. You might as well draw a name out of a hat at this point.
There are so many things that will impact this season, outside this particular season. Past relationships will certainly be a factor. Who's played with whom? Who doesn't get along with whom? Which players made lasting impressions on the other contestants when they watched each season? Which players are friends, or enemies, outside the game?
There are also many variables that will affect the game before it starts, and no one knows how those things will manifest themselves once the game begins.
It is almost easier to eliminate some of these survivors from the start. While it would be fantastic to see someone like Cirie Fields or Ozzie Lusth win, after being just important figures in the game's history, it's tough to see all the other players allowing them to stick around long enough to win.
The quick-paced format change will also be a factor. The game is only 26 days long now, rather than the longer 39-day game it was before season 41. There is much less food provided and almost no amenities. It seems unlikely that the six Old School players will perform well under these rules.
Stephanie LaGrossa Kendrick would be a great story if she can make a deep run. She's already established herself in Survivor history as being the only player to be in a tribe of one after her tribe lost all immunity challenges, and she was the last person standing. She's also finished second. This is her fourth go in the game, but it will be challenging for her to make it to the end. Heroes vs. Villains was her last appearance, and she was the second one voted out.
It also seems unlikely that Q Burdette will make it to the end. He is such a wild card and instigates so much chaos. It is difficult to imagine him going deep in this game. No one else has seen Savannah Louie or Rizo Velovic play before. That unknown may make it hard for them to gain trust in the game. If it comes out that Savannah won her season, that might make it even more difficult for her.
That leaves two other winners, Dee Valladares and Kyle Fraser. Again, it seems unlikely that any known previous winner will be put in a position to win again. Both were good in their seasons, though Kyle's win was one of the most impressive.
If you concede that none of those 10 players can win, the possibilities of who could win are now a workable 14 players.
5. Aubry Bracco
Aubry is a little like Cirie and Ozzie in that she's played several times already but never won. She's finished second, fifth, and fifteenth. She is outstanding at lying back early in the game, then making moves post-merge.
She definitely has the skills to navigate the length of the game, but other players are surely going to be wary of her. A win would definitely entrench her as one of the all-time greats.
4. Tiffany Ervin
Tiffany had the feel of a good player right from the start of season 46, but she didn't get much of a chance to play long after the merge. She finished eighth, but in different circumstances, she could be a big strategic threat.
She is the type of player who might fly under the radar early because she was voted out a little early in her season. She probably won't have as big of a target on her as some others around her. Don't be shocked if she makes it deep into the game this time around.
3. Joe Hunter
Joe had such a great storyline in season 48. When Eva Erickson revealed she was on the autism spectrum to him, he promised to help her in the game, and he stuck to that promise to the very end. They both made it to Final Tribal Council, but Kyle couldn't be denied the win.
The loyalty and empathy played a big part in Joe's game. It will be interesting to see who he connects with early on in his tribe. Just about anyone could be a candidate.
2. Rick Devens
Rick had an interesting first game in season 38. He was sent to the Edge of Extinction, where he spent six days before getting back into the game. He then made it to the final four. He is likable, strategic, and the physical threat others might be.
If he finds the right alliance, Rick could make a deep play in season 50, too. He has the skill set to do so, and he isn't as big of a name as some others. He might slip through during the early stages of the game because there are some legends on his tribe in Cirie and Ozzie. If he does, he can be a dangerous player post-merge.
1. Genevieve Mushaluk
Genevieve played a terrific strategic game in season 47, but she comes into Survivor 50 with some baggage after orchestrating some incredible blindsides. She betrayed trust regularly, but she just seemed to have a knack for knowing when to make plays.
Genevieve could make a great run, but she's in a tribe with some cagey players. Kyle and Aubry are strong strategic players, and in season 49, Rizo was no slouch in that department. She will have to prove her loyalty early, but if she makes it to the merge, it would not be surprising to see her make a strong run to the end.
There are several other players who could be around at the end. Charlie Davis, Emily Flippen, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Chrissy Hofbeck all are good enough to win this thing. Of course, this is Survivor, and it's impossible to predict anything, and with such a talented group, anything could happen.
It would be surprising, however, if one or two of these five players don't make it to Final Tribal Council.
Survivor 50 premieres on Wednesday, Feb. 25!