Are we getting a tribe switch up before Survivor 51 even begins?

Fan theory alert!Spoilers ahead if it turns out to be right!

Survivorfans have been in a flurry since theSurvivor 51cast was announced in an exciting livestream yesterday. With 21 new castaways joining the franchise at such a pivotal moment in the show’s history, fans have a lot to say about the large cast and whether or not they believe players will live up to their expectations.

And while we don’t have much info on the season yet—other than the theme being whales—with21 players, we can guess that we will be following the three tribe format that the new era so diligently followed season-to-season. And yesterday’s announcement might have given us a sneak peek at how the tribes are being broken up.

We don’t have confirmed names for the tribes, but based on the colors players are wearing, we can’t help but think we’re going to have three starting tribes with red, yellow, and blue buffs—the same atSurvivor 49. Here are our predicted tribal breakdown:

Red Tribe

• Angelica “Jelly” Loblack

• Devin Way

• Kristin Flickinger

• Eric Macksoud

• Maggie Nestor

• Sharonda Cox

Yellow Tribe

• Aaliyah Puglia

• Cristian Chavez

• Carter Krull

• Lewis Kelly

• Ori Jean-Charles

• Patt Cannaday

Blue Tribe

• Alexis Levine

• Ana Sani

• Rob Antonson

• Danny “Kilby” Kilby

• Mike Pinsky

• An “Thien An” Nguyen

Now I know you’re probably saying, “Hey! Wait! That’s only six people per tribe?” Yes, yes it is. Because there are three players who seem to each be wearing all three colors…

So while they definitely seem to be hinting at three tribes, there also seem to be three outliers amongst our 21 players who don’t seem to fit into one specific tribe and are, in fact, standing out because they look like they’re supposed to fit into any of the potential tribes.

Red/Yellow/Blue Tribe?

• Linnea Capobianco

• Brady Booker

• Jenna Doore

But what does this mean?

Well, if you remember in theSurvivor 51teaser trailer, there actually aren’t three tribes, there are two: yellow and purple. But none of our players have buffs while on the marooning boat, grabbing supplies, which likely means tribes haven’t actually been pre-selected by production at all.

And with 21 players, it’s impossible to have two tribes without one person being left out. But at other points in the teaser, we do catch a glimpse of every single player wearing a buff—though I had to slow it down to .25x, pause, and zoom in a few times.

And now that we know who our castaways are, we can see who’s wearing which buff.Spoilers ahead (if my eyes and theory are correct)!

Purple Tribe:Alexis Levine, Ana Sani, Carter Krull, Cristian Chavez, Eric Macksoud, Kristin Flickinger, Linnea Capobianco, Ori Jean-Charles, Rob Antonson, Sharonda Cox

Yellow Tribe:Aaliyah Puglia, An “Thien An” Nguyen, Angelica “Jelly” Loblack, Brady Booker, Danny “Kilby” Kilby, Devin Way, Jenna Doore, Lewis Kelly, Maggie Nestor, Mike Pinsky, Patt Cannaday,

So we have 10 purple tribe members and 11 yellow tribe members. But there’s one more layer in the teaser trailer that will help us unpack this. Brady Booker says, “I haven’t remembered a game start like this in years. I mean, you gotta kick it back, I think, to the single [digits].”

At first, I thought he was talking about the ship marooning, but now that we have a little more information, it’s very likely he’s talking about the assemblage of the tribes. And with a few players looking like they could belong anywhere, I can’t help but wonder if it’s a hint at our castaways being the ones to choose who belongs in which tribe via a schoolyard pick.

In the early seasons ofSurvivor, we saw a few iterations of a schoolyard pick. First inSurvivor: Thailand, the two oldest members of the game—who in Thai culture are considered the most valued members of society—conduct a schoolyard pick to determine tribes.

Then this evolved duringSurvivor: Palauwhere one member of each starting tribe was awarded individual immunity upon arriving first to their beach. The two immunity necklace holders then got to initiate a schoolyard pick for new tribes that ended with two players being eliminated.

But there’s no way that the brilliant and sometimes spicyJeff Probstwould give one tribe a leg up at the very beginning of the season for no reason other than uneven numbers…

So we predict that after a schoolyard pick, one player from the yellow tribe will be the odd-player out and be sent to Exile Island (which was also featured at the beginning ofSurvivor 50) to wait for the first losing tribe (likely yellow) to vote out a member and then they will join that group.

Again, this is all speculation, and considering it looks like Mike Pinsky might be holding a beware advantage or hidden immunity idol wrapping, we can’t help but wonder if he’s the one sent to Exile Island and lucky enough to find an idol on his first day before rejoining the rest of the players.

At this point, I’m just so excited about a new season ofSurvivor, especially one that’s been made to be unpredictable, that I’ll be thrilled with whatever happens. Of course that won’t stop me from clowning like crazy as I try and predict what’s to come in the open era. I can’t wait to share more theories with you!

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