Mitch Guerra has been an intriguing character on Survivor 48 from the very first moment he stepped onto the beach. Mitch has been vocal about inspiring others, showing that his stutter is not a barrier to achieving his goals and dreams, just as it should not be for any child or person watching who may have any form of speech impediment.
Mitch has done well from day one at communicating his expectations and needs around the obstacles he may face within the tribe, and doing so respectfully and admirably. Gaining insight into his background has also helped to endear him to viewers, providing great personal material for viewers to connect with and look up to.
Gameplay-wise, however, Mitch has been less stellar. Take nothing away from Mitch the person, but Mitch the Survivor player has often been lacking. Despite what appears from the edit to be a solid social game, Mitch has tended to rely on his alliance mates to maneuver through the game, often being one to avoid stirring up the pot. This is a fine strategy, especially early, but let it go too long, and a player can become a follower.
This week's episode of Survivor 48 lined up a perfect opportunity for Mitch to pull the trigger on the big move he has been hyping himself up for since the merge. Unfortunately, he again lay back and did not want to take a risk. This time, it likely cost him the entire game.
Episode 9 set up Mitch to hit a home run
In Episode 9 of Survivor 48, the cast was down to just eight players. The trick is, many of those players were in an alliance. A supposed six-person alliance was made up of Joe Hunter, Eva Erickson, Kyle Fraser, Shauhin Davari, Kamilla Karthigesu, and Mitch. That said, Kamilla could feel that, despite her tight duo with Kyle, she was not really in the inner circle. Star Toomey was completely on the outs, and Mary Zheng was cut out after losing her ride or die, David Kinne the previous episode.
Those three women recognized that they were on the bottom and would need to shake the game up a bit to have any shot at making it to the end. It was becoming more and more evident that the group of Joe, Eva, Shauhin, and Kyle was a core four alliance. Kyle did have his side alliance with Kamilla, but Mitch was sitting outside of this core.
Star started the episode by attempting to show Mitch this fact. He seemed to hear it, but his distrust of Star would not allow him to truly believe it, as he felt closer to the group of 4 than he did the outsiders. At the reward challenge, though, it appeared his gears started moving a bit when Kyle chose Eva, Kamilla, and Shauhin to go on the reward with him. Mitch felt hurt by being left out, and started to think perhaps he is not as in as he was made to believe.
This, combined with his previous declarations of wanting to make a big move, appeared to set Mitch up for a game-changing play here. Kamilla came to Mitch and suggested that they make a four-person voting bloc with Star and Mary and target Joe. The theory was that the others would play scared, and refuse to go to rocks, ultimately getting one to flip.
Kamilla told Kyle about the plan, and although Kyle would not participate, he was willing to work in the wings to help facilitate it. All this seemed like a perfect opportunity for Mitch to control his own game. If the other four really are as tight as everyone says, this would be the last possible time mathematically to split them apart without a big advantage play of some sort (that no one in the minority had).
Mitch was set up to take over the game and possibly set himself up with a resume for the jury. When Joe won immunity, though, it all fell apart.
Mitch's passive approach to gameplay may have just cost him $1 million
The second the tribe got back to camp, it became immediately clear that Mitch was not going to go through with the plan. He was upset that Star and Mary had previously voted for him and wouldn't vote with them. This left Kamilla forced to stick with the original "six", with Mary and Star battling it out for who would go home. In the end, it was Star. Mitch was once again passive, and this time it likely cost him the game.
First off, he no longer has the numbers to do anything on his own. If a move is made, it is going to have to come from one of the four on the "in" crew, in which case, they will get all the credit. Otherwise, the four can just run the numbers down. Mitch has an idea of this because he voiced his concern, but has now put himself in a position to be completely at their mercy.
Second, any move that is made will not be in his control. He can be a number for it, and possibly even a swing vote if, say, Kyle chooses to flip to make it 4-3. But even on the off chance he lands in that swing position, will the jury give him credit for being there? It seems unlikely. If anything, they may simply look at him as an indecisive flip-flopper. And that's if he even chooses to go with the underdogs, and does not decide to stick with the majority and run it down even further. His agency becomes undermined.
Third, he really has no argument he can make to the jury, even if he somehow makes it to the end. Mitch has stayed in some form of a majority most of the game, but the entire time, it has been as a passive observer, not an active player. He has avoided pushing on any votes, simply going with what others decide. Any time he has had the opportunity to make a move or try to shift the trajectory of the game, he has sat back and kept the status quo. There is no argument he can make about moves to call his own.
Finally, his social standing is now jeopardized as well. What once should have been an area of strength for Mitch has now become an area of concern. He is clearly not as tight with the power four as he believed he was, and by not rolling with the outcasts, he is no longer going to be as close with them either. He has made himself expendable to pretty much anyone still left in the game. Use him for a vote, bring him to the end as a goat, or cut him when no longer needed; his social standing makes him an afterthought.
All of these factors put together essentially make it so that Mitch has no feasible way to win the game. In fact, out of the seven players left still standing, I believe he is the only one who has absolutely no path to the win. Even Mary has a season-long underdog story she could play if she made the end. By not making this move when the timing was perfect to do so, Mitch seemingly blew any hope he had of winning a million dollars.
Survivor 48 is not over yet, and anything could happen. We do not know the results until they are shown. There could be some major moves yet to be made that Mitch manages to orchestrate. Given the way the season is being shown, though, it just does not seem logical to have him win. I truly love Mitch as a person. He is kind, endearing, charismatic, and inspirational. As a player, though, he has not done anything. That will be his ultimate downfall.