And then there were five. It's officially time for the Survivor 46 finale! We've been waiting all season, and it's all come down to this. Charlie, Ben, Maria, Liz, or Kenzie will be the winner of Survivor 46. That much is clear, but who will it be?
Taking the full season into account, three players have the best chance to win Survivor 46. So, let's take a look at who that is and how they can win.
Charlie Davis
Charlie is my favorite to win Survivor 46 after episode 12. When he was the most vulnerable he's been the entire season, Charlie got a lot of help to survive this vote and make the final five. Thanks to Liz and Kenzie, who played Maria and Q, Charlie is still alive in the game, and he's the favorite to win.
First of all, he's in the majority alliance and he still has a good relationship with Maria, hopefully. There are multiple pathways for Charlie to end up in the final three. He just has to survive the next two votes, and he has as good of a chance to win the game as anyone in Survivor history heading into final tribal.
Charlie has played an incredible game so far. He wasn't the most physical threat, but he's been clear about his plan. He always makes the choice that gives him the best opportunity to continue working with people. That's exceptional social and strategic gameplay. He never turns anyone down, and he's happy to talk through all of the scenarios. It's the perfect game plan to get him as far in the game as possible.
Charlie made a key alliance with Maria early in the game, and that alliance has been running things since the beginning. While Maria drifted to Q in episode 12, Charlie stayed on the right side with Ben, Liz, and Kenzie. He put a lot of faith in them, and they came through for him when Maria targeted him before the final five.
Although he hasn't appeared to be, Charlie has been in control. He's been the key in so many votes, and he's been a vital part in deciding who is going home every single week. To date, Charlie is the only player who has been on the right side of every single vote, I believe. Every other player has seen at least one vote come and go while being on the wrong side. That's a huge accomplishment.
If Charlie can win immunity in one of the next two challenges or just ends up on the final three, I don't think any player will beat him.
Maria Shrime Gonzalez
If there is one player left in the game who could give Charlie a run for his money at the final three, it's Maria. If they are both sitting there, it's going to be a challenge for the jury to decide who was really calling the shots, running the game, and deserves the $1 million prize. Honestly, Maria and Charlie, because they've been in lockstep for so much of the game, it's not hard to admit they both deserve to win.
For me, Maria has been the better player in challenges, so I'll give her the advantage there. She's also done an incredible job staying out of the way and allowing the game to unfold while also putting her spin on every vote. There's only been one vote that didn't go Maria's way, and that's her disastrous missed blindside on Charlie. It was a smart move, assuming everyone went along with it, but they didn't. Maria got caught.
Prior to the episode, I thought it was too soon for Maria and Charlie to split. There are still too many people remaining in the game. If they don't go into the next two votes as allies, they might be voted out in fourth or fifth place. And, that's because Kenzie, Ben, and Liz are not dumb. They know that Maria and Charlie are favorites. Now, they have the numbers advantage. If Maria or Charlie don't win immunity, they could definitely be in trouble.
And, that's why I think Maria is a little bit less likely to win than Charlie. She's now at the bottom of the final five after trying to vote out Charlie. I don't think people will be afraid of working with Maria necessarily. I think they realize she is the favorite, and they need to vote her out when she doesn't have the immunity necklace.
Maria has played the best game so far, but she's also the top target heading into the finale.
Kenzie Petty
I already mentioned this, but Charlie and Maria are the most likely players to win Survivor 46. They've played the best game so far, but there are still two immunity challenges and two votes left before the final tribal. There's still time for someone to win this game, and I think Kenzie has the best chance to do that.
Look, Kenzie has a great story. She was on one of the worst tribes in Survivor history. She survived almost half of the game without fire! She made it to the merge, and she's been crucial in several major moves, especially the most recent move to save Charlie and take out Q, which was a direct hit to Maria's game.
Kenzie was not part of the Tiffany vote, but they left her out because she was too close to Tiffany. I don't think we can hold that against her. She's won individual immunity, although she's not a major challenge threat.
I still think that Charlie and Maria would win against Kenzie, but if Kenzie can orchestrate a plan to take out Charlie or Maria before the final tribal council, she has a great chance to win the game. Throw in an immunity win or some impressive answers at final tribal? She could easily win with a late push.
If she could pull in Ben and Liz to vote out Charlie AND Maria before the final three, well, Kenzie would win Survivor 46. It's that simple.
So, that's who I think is in the best position to win in Survivor 46! And, I don't mean these picks as an insult to Ben or Liz. In some aspects, they've played great games. Ben has been an awesome presence at camp. He's good vibes, and he's been a part of almost every key vote.
Liz has made some big moves, although she didn't get much credit. She deserves equal credit as Kenzie for the Q blindside. I just think she's rubbed a lot of people the wrong way with some of her actions. I'm also worried that she'll come off poorly at the final tribal council when she tries to take credit for some of the moves that she was clearly behind but did not get credit for at the time.
The Survivor 46 finale airs on Wednesday, May 22, on CBS and Paramount+.