There is a good chance there will be a tribal shake-up on Survivor 46 during episode 4. With 15 players remaining, the teams could be randomly reformed into three tribes of five.
In the past, anything could happen during the random draws for new tribes. Sometimes, players are redistributed fairly evenly, with members of all the original tribes somewhat evenly spread out. Other times, we've seen maybe one tribe member be stuck with mates that had all been together before the shuffle.
Regardless, it usually shakes the game up because it can reveal cracks in alliances, or it gives new life to players who might not have been faring well in their origianl tribe. Often, players might use the minority group of players in their new tribe to vote out someone they've wanted to get rid of before but couldn't.
What players stand to gain the most if the tribes reshuffle?
The player who might have the best chance at improving their position is Venus from the Nami tribe. This sassy survivor only had one tribe mate willing to work with her, but Randen was removed from the game by the medical team in episode 3. Venus barely gets along with anyone else in her tribe, though that situation seemed slightly better in episode 3. In episode 2 she clearly indicated that she would flip on her tribe the first chance she got.
If Venus were to get in a situation where she is the swing vote on a new tribe, and she has a chance to oust a former Nami member, it's probable she'll do so, especially if that person is Tevin, with whom she hasn't meshed with at all.
In situations where one original tribe was just awful and is down members to begin with, once divided out, they are either used as a vote to remove more threatening players, or they are simply voted out because it's an easy vote.
This season, it's different, mainly because both players from the Yanu tribe that have gone on journeys, first Jelinsky, then Bhanu, have pretty much spilled the beans about Yanu's dynamics.
Bhanu's indiscretions during his journey during episode 3 could prove devasting to the other Yanu tribe members. Bhanu told Liz from Nami, and Ben from Siga that Q and Tiffany were a pair, but Kenzie was absolutely running the show on the Yanu beach. These revelations will certainly put all three of them at risk during a tribal shake-up.
As for Bhanu, a change of scenery will certainly help him on a short-term basis, but he is too emotional, too paranoid, and too indiscreet for anyone to be able to trust. He certainly won't be trusted by anyone moving forward, though he can be used for a vote for quite a while.
If anyone can figure out a way to control him, without telling him anything important, he could last until the merge, where he's no danger to anyone to win the title of Sole Survivor.
Venus, in the long run, if she can find some folks she can get along with, may benefit the most if tribes are shaken up. Bhanu, on the short-term, might also benefit because he's at risk in Yanu currently. That situation won't improve when his tribe learns that he aired out Yanu's laundry.