The power rankings are back for Survivor 48. Two jury seats are filled with Survivor 48 cast, and the game is moving along rapidly. Host Jeff Probst continues to lob curveballs at the players, and the first alliance, made up of the most physical contestants, is cracking just a bit as personal agendas begin to take precedence.
These power rankings are not predictions for the winner; they are a snapshot of what is going on in the game at any given time. Who seemingly holds the power? Who looks to be on the outs? Who isn’t taking part in the decision-making?
In Survivor, one wrong word or action, or someone making a bold move, can quickly turn a player from a position of power to a seat on the jury.
9. Star Toomey
Star has played a reasonably standoffish game thus far. She doesn’t appear to have any close allies, nor does she have any fierce enemies. She and Eva Erickson clashed early, but made up during Star’s biggest moment of the season.
Star went after the idol very early in the game and found the clue, but she had no luck solving the puzzle that opened the clue. After Eva revealed her autism to everyone, Star was vocal with her tribe about her support of Eva because Star had family members with autism, and she admired Eva’s courage. When Eva helped her solve the puzzle, Star gave the idol to Eva.
That moment hasn’t turned into anything bigger yet. Star has been an observer so far this season. You get the feeling she may still have an important role in how this season unfolds, but she has no power within the merged tribe and no apparent alliances.
8. Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla is the perfect example of how quickly things can turn around for a player. Up to this point, she has been playing an unassuming shadow game. She’s had a successful secret alliance with Kyle Fraser for most of the season. Out of nowhere, David Kinne and Mary Zheng decided they wanted Kamilla gone, which is strange.
Instead of going with Chrissy Sarnowsky, who was the easy vote, David and Mary threw Kamilla’s name out as an alternative. They were insistent about their desire. Kyle, however, didn't want to see his secret ally go home and had to fight for Kamilla, raising suspicions as to why.
While not unanimous, it seemed Kamilla would be the vote in episode 8, but Chrissy just couldn’t keep her mouth shut during Tribal Council. She had been harping about taking strong players out to whoever would listen to her on the beach. Chrissy ended up being the unanimous vote, but it probably wouldn’t have been that way if she had kept quiet. It didn’t save Kamilla. Her relationship with Kyle is under suspicion now, and her shadow game might be over.
7. Mitch Guerra
In his own words, Mitch has played a scared game so far. Now, he realizes he CAN play this game effectively, but it might be too late. He was scrambling pretty hard in episode 8 until it became obvious he wouldn’t be the target.
There is still time for Mitch to make an impact on this season. He’s been good enough in enough of the challenges to be a threat moving forward, and he’s likable. He doesn’t seem to have any enemies. He will have a hard time winning unless he can find a strong alliance to help him make it to the Final Five.
For Mitch, it might all come down to how long the dominating alliance stays together. He needs to help shatter that fragile group to have a chance.
6. Mary Zheng
Mary has been the scrappiest player this season. She survived early threats to make it to the merge and is the last former Vula tribe member left in the game. However, she is the sixth person in a six-player alliance and is attached to David.
While it seemed she and David overplayed their hand when insisting on voting out Kamilla, they did flush out Kyle's alliance with Kamilla a little. That alone has widened the crack of distrust among the core five of the coalition. David, Kyle, and Shauhin barely trust each other as it is, though none has made an outward move against the others.
If Joe, Eva, Shauhin Daravi, and Kyle think David and Mary are hindering their chances, the latter two can quickly become the next targets. Mary is a new member of the big alliance, so if she is perceived as the cause of disruption among that group, she might get sent to the jury.
5. David Kinne
Most of the points for Mary apply to David, except that he might be seen as a more significant threat than Mary if the alliance turns on each other.
David hasn’t done much specifically to earn distrust from his allies, but this is Survivor. It doesn’t take much to turn friends into enemies. David isn’t there yet, but the underlying distrust between David, Kyle, and Shauhin is always simmering, right below the surface.
Unless Kyle’s duplicity with Kamilla is fully exposed, David seems the most likely of the power five to be sent to the jury. His sudden attachment to Mary may not be to his advantage much longer.
4. Kyle Fraser
Kyle will soon have to decide whether to maintain his core alliance and sacrifice Kamilla. If he and Kamilla can marshal enough votes to break apart the five-member core alliance, that's an option, too.
Kyle has played a pretty good game, and his hidden partnership with Kamilla has been fun to watch. It feels genuine on both parts, which is nice to see. When the focus shifted toward Kamilla during episode 8 as the vote target, Kyle was forced to defend her place in the game.
Because David and Mary were so insistent, Kyle had to defend Kamilla more strenuously than was ideal. It is still unknown how that will affect Kyle’s place in the game and how much longer he will be trusted.
There is a path for Kyle to win Survivor 48, but he will probably have to turn on his core alliance at some point. He may be forced into it sooner rather than later.
3. Joe Hunter
Among some players, especially with the now-departed Chrissy, there is a perception that Joe is running the game. That isn’t necessarily true. Yes, he and Eva form a formidable duo, and Chrissy was right in that, on most seasons, that pair would be the primary targets.
But this isn’t a typical season of Survivor. For the first time, the most physical players in the game have come together as allies rather than shields for more strategic players. It is hard to believe this alliance can last much longer. There is too much distrust and hidden agendas. Who would expect anything less? It still would be awesome if those players all made it to the final and let things fall as they may.
What will probably bury Joe is his integrity. He decided early, when Eva first confided in him about her autism, to play an honest and open game. In the end, it will probably cost him the game. Shauhin, Kyle, and David are all working other irons, and Joe is playing a straightforward game. Few players can pull that off.
2. Eva Erickson
It would be surprising to learn that Eva isn’t the most popular player in season 48. Her story is just too good, and she is terrific. She is playing hard, too. There is little doubt she’d be willing to play with Joe to the end, yet she found a clue to a hidden advantage and didn’t tell her closest ally about it. She is playing the game.
No one other than Joe wants her anywhere near the Final Tribal Council unless it is in the jury. Other dramas are deflecting focus away from her, but she has to be considered the biggest threat.
Her fate may be determined by whether she can effectively play her idol and advantage. If she can make it to the final three, she wins. This is Survivor; everyone knows it, and Chrissy reminded everyone in case they forgot.
1. Shauhin Davari
When David and Mary took sides against Kyle, Shauhin emerged as the biggest winner. His name had been bandied about in the past as a significant threat, but if David and Kyle continue to be suspicious of each other, it will benefit Shauhin the most.
Even though Joe and Eva are his closest allies, if one of them gets blindsided, it will be by Shauhin. He and Kyle are the most strategic of the Physical Five (I wish I had thought of that name sooner), but Shauhin has been less aggressive so far. He’s lying back, letting others place targets on themselves.
Shauhin is using Joe and Eva as shields right now, which is brilliant. Depending on how things fall out over the next episode or two, look for Shauhin to make a move against his allies soon. He’s been willing to be upfront with them so far, but he knows he won’t win against either at the final tribal council.
This season has been unique in a few ways, and the stretch run is lining up to be one of the more entertaining finishes in a while. Several great players are still in the game, which should make for a fun ending.