We kicked off a new season of Survivor last week with a two-hour premiere that left us wondering if this was a gradual start to an epic season or if we can expect a familiar trajectory based on the fact that most of the new era has started off in a very similar fashion. And so far, Survivor 49 has me feeling like I've seen this film before.
Spoilers ahead forSurvivor 49!
Alliances are the name of the game in Survivor 49 so far
The majority of this week's episode focused on each tribe's newly solidified majority alliances and just exactly how secure they really are.
The Uli tribe is riding high with Savannah Louie, Shannon Fairweather, Nate Moore, and Rizo Velovic sitting at the top without either Jawan Pitts or Sage Ahrens-Nichols feeling like they're on the bottom. The six keep a cohesive and accepting environment at camp, which has now translated into two second place immunity finishes.
There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that this grouping will continue to hold the power come merge time. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Jawan attempted to flip and blindside one of the current majority alliance after the tribe swap based on how much emphasis they're putting on him in regards to wanting to earn credit with his tribe, and failing.
Though Hina is riding high on a winning streak, with the most rewards and opportunities to thrive in the game, the social performance of their players might not be as top notch as their challenge skills.
While there was a majority alliance technically formed this episode featuring Matt Williams, Kristina Mills, Steven Ramm, and MC Chukwujekwu, a hierarchy within the four was made apparent when MC was asked to join last and she didn't take this stting down. She's keeping up appearances and acting like the happily aligned player the rest think she is, but she's definitely also playing double agent with her sight lines set on getting out Matt—even going as far as to inform Sophie Segreti that the majority alliance was discussing her and she needs to stay alert.
And over at Kele, after Nicole Mazullo went home, Annie Davis was feeling invincible. Though she's not in the majority alliance, she has a secret thing going with Alex Moore that gave her the impression she was locked in for a long run based on his relationship with Jake Latimer, the clear tribe leader. But even the majority isn't in sync as both Alex and Sophi Balerdi are secretly vying for Jake's top ally spot, going so far as to plot against each other only a few days in the game. The social discord is definitely not doing the tribe any favors.
Survivor 49's first journey saw the winner walk away with nothing but future enemies
In a new twist on journeys, our three voyagers competed against each other in an elimination-style challenge which had me wondering if we might start to see journeys adapt into something more along the lines of Redemption Island—without being permanently eliminated from the game.
At the beginning of the new era, journeys were an exciting, new, and unpredictable thing that could lead to massive payout if you were willing to take the risk. But as of late, journeys have turned into something to fear rather than something to celebrate. So with this new twist where no one has to risk anything—that they know of—but one person walk away with a reward, it feels much more classic Survivor.
And with a choice of two rewards—help your tribe or help yourself—the new format gives players a little more freedom to create their own destiny. So when Jawan won the challenge and chose to help his tribe by disadvantaging Hina at the next immunity challenge rather than helping himself by stealing a vote from either Matt or Jake, he set up his destiny to involve being hated by the entire Hina tribe.
And the reward didn't even matter in the end as Hina still won, Uli placed a swift second, and Kele—even with a major lead—fell so far behind they found themselves back at Tribal Council.
One loss turns to two, turns to three...
Kele started last week on the bottom after both a tribe challenge and secondary singular effort by Alex fell flat. Another loss and subsequent trip to Tribal Council tested the majority alliance when they had to choose between Nicole and Annie, but ultimately they thought they made the right decision by keeping what they saw as physical strength. Spoiler: they did not.
Even Hina's disadvantage wasn't enough to keep Kele from the bottom, as they fumbled the puzzle and found themselves still without flint and heading to another date at Tribal Council with host Jeff Probst. The biggest difference this week was the activity level back at camp after the challenge.
Having previously found the beware advantage, Alex returned from the challenge with one goal: to unlock the hidden immunity idol with Jake. But then Sophi got involved. Then Jeremiah Ing. And once Alex officially had his hands on the idol, he turned right around and told Annie about it. So now the bottom tribe has an active idol on it that everyone knows about. Ultimately, this won't protect Alex, but put a huge target on his back as Sophi tries to blindside him to keep Jake's loyalty to herself and should Jeremiah flip at the tribe swap or merge—knowing he's on the bottom of this four—he also has that power of knowledge over Alex.
Tribes on the bottom stay on the bottom, but with good reason
Kele's three challenge losing streak is nothing new on Survivor, especially in the new era. Over the last eight seasons, we've seen a pattern developing that the first tribe to lose almost always fights through the beginning half of the game on the bottom. Most recently, we saw this with the Vula tribe in Survivor 48 when they narrowly avoided becoming the worst starting tribe in history.
But now, including Kele, we've seen a three-challenge losing streak in five seasons of the new era—Survivor 41's Yase, Survivor 45's Lulu, Survivor 46's Yanu, and Survivor 48's Vula. That's more than a 50% guarantee that if you start the game losing, you will continue to lose. Of these four tribes that came before, only two went on to win a challenge in episode 3: Yase and Lulu (though Lulu only won reward and did still end up back at Tribal Council, sending someone home that night). That's another 50% step, which still doesn't look good for Kele's future.
Of course, the starting losing streak has absolutely nothing to do with luck and everything to do with the fact that the first tribe to lose doesn't have supplies or flint and their morale is down not only from the loss, but from their lack of food and shelter. A continued loss means further depletion, while the other tribes are thriving as best as you can while starving on a beach in Fiji.
And as we saw in this episode, Jeff repeatedly confirmed the heat was messing with castaway's ability to think as he had to tell multiple players not to apologize for losing their train of thought explicitly due to how hot it was. So the heat on top of a lack of proper nutrition and mental and physical stress from continuously attending Tribal Councils doesn't hold much hope that we'll see the game turnaround for Kele any time soon.
Tribal Council doesn't surprise
Despite the fact that her no. 1 ally had just unlocked a hidden immunity idol, Annie burned too many bridges when she started running victory laps too early and made everyone on Kele not want to work with her anymore. I originally predicted that if she kept her natural, easygoing vibes and secured a really loyal day 1 ally, she had all the tools she needed to get to the Final Three. Alas, she dropped her low-key demeanor after one episode and found herself an ally who had more loyalty to someone else, sending her home second.
Next Time on Survivor...
I had low expectations for the Kele tribe, and high hopes that they don't meet them. With the two people who weren't in awe of being aligned with Jake now gone, it's possible their morale will improve and contribute to a win, but it's not likely.
We're definitely due for some drama to go down at Hina—most likely instigated by MC and Sophie's secret conversations—and if there's another journey, that's one more opportunity for the game to shake up.
We'll just have to wait and see as we tune for Survivor 49 episode 3 in this Wednesday, October 8 at 8pm ET on CBS and Paramount+.