As always, we start a new season of Survivor and immediately need to look back on previous seasons. Most specifically last season, which opened up not with the traditional voiceovers during the castaway's arrival, but with clips of them when they learned they would be included in season 48.
Why does this matter? Because Survivor 48 was the most human-focused season we've really ever seen in the show's history. And they not only told us it would be with that opening sequence, but with who was significantly featured in it. Mitch Guerra, Eva Erickson, David Kinne, Kyle Fraser, and Kamilla Karthigesu opened the show with Joe Hunter capping things off with an emotional display of gratitude.
Five of those six players would go on to be the last ones standing, and all of them were heavily involved in social moments that ultimately made the season what it was. Because at the end of the day, season 48 wasn't about the gameplay, it was about the people. And now that we've switched back to our standard introduction, the show is telling us that the game is on for Survivor 49.
Survivor 49 is going to be the closest to the original game that we've seen in the new era
And, as always, the first episode gave us a road map to the season. So let's chat about the Survivor 49 premiere and I'll let you know what you might have missed, what to expect "next time on Survivor..." and which of our castaways are in it to win it.
The Marooning
Off the bat, it was clear the Hina tribe was already off to a positive beginning as they joyously leapt from the boat, obviously all on the same wave length, before the game even started. Their easy vibes demonstrated a key component of Survivor: the tribes that work well together perform well. We saw this take effect last season with the original Civa tribe, who had incredible social chemistry that translated into challenge, win after challenge until the tribe swap in episode 5.
We also got similar insight into the other two tribes when host Jeff Probst's first question to the Uli tribe resulted in a funny anecdote from Sage Ahrens-Nichols. Yet the response when directed to the Kele tribe brought out our first heart-moment of the season as Jake Latimer got emotional talking about his father's diagnosis of glaucoma.
So, we have two tribes already established as fun and inviting and one set up a little more heavy-handed. This was even reflected in the player's body language as the introductions continued and Hina's Steven Ramm gave the most golden retriever energy answer to which we saw Uli's Shannon Fairweather reacting with a hand over her heart and wide eyes, but Kele's Jeremiah Ing standing with his hands in his pockets, a little more closed off.
Based on first impressions alone, we're told Kele's journey this season—giving off some Survivor 48 Vula energy—might be a little harder than Hina and Uli's. And Jeff's intro speech reiterated that the players are the ones who impact the game, emphasizing the idea that this season our castaways are going to be heavily focused on gameplay and making their mark on the show. Especially since casting for Survivor 50 was still up in the air and this season's contestants had even more on the line than any that came before.
The Day One Alliance Duos to Watch
Jeremiah and Sophi Balerdi: While the edit might suggest that Jake and Alex Moore are the two power players of the Kele tribe, it's because they are so open about their bromance that I don't think they're in a safe spot. Sophi and Jeremiah, however, clocked that relationship and are working together to manage it from the inside, forming a Final Four alliance with the two men. Their strategic viewpoint of the situation sets them up as the true power alliance of the Kele tribe as they'll eventually need to separate the physical alliance—most likely by voting out Alex in order to weaken Jake.
Shannon and Savannah Louie: While they didn't explicitly pair up in this episode, they connected within a larger majority alliance plan with Jawan Pitts, as well as Nate Moore, separately. But Shannon's easy energy and Savannah's killer instinct could be a lethal combination in this game. Giving very similar vibes as Survivor 48's Kamilla and Kyle, I have no doubt that if these two officially align they have all the tools they need to manipulate the game exactly how they need it to go.
The Challenges
Just as expected, Hina dominated both challenges during the two-hour premiere, with Uli right behind. Kele, however, walked away without supplies and without immunity, doubling down my theory that their need to immediately bond over aligning vs. creating genuine connections within the tribe would lead to discord. And that was beyond apparent at the end of the first immunity challenge when communication was their official downfall.
There's no doubt that Jake is the biggest physical threat in the game, but if the tribe can't work together, it doesn't matter how much of the challenge he can carry. I don't know if he understands that yet, though, continuously trying to drag his tribe mates to meet him at the front of the race rather than keeping up with them to make sure that Kele was in pace with the rest of the tribes.
If Kele can't figure out how to use their individual strengths to complement each other, then it doesn't matter that they keep the "strongest" players around, they won't be able to perform as a tribe and will very possibly become regulars at Tribal Council.
No Advantages in Sight
This is the first season premiere in years when we didn't see any hint at an advantage of any kind. Though the Kele tribe seemed concerned about Annie Davis wandering off on her own, us at-home viewers weren't alerted that she found anything or was even looking.
This could mean we're getting back to basics this season and either our castaways are getting significantly less advantage opportunities than we've previously seen in the new era, or it could mean there aren't any advantages at all. Especially after we only saw one advantage played last season, could Survivor finally be switching things up and going back to the days when the players influenced the game more than the tricks the producers put in place?
Tribal Council
The first vote always sets a precedent for the season, but for Survivor 49 it was less about who was on the bottom and more about who was on the top.
It was extremely clear that Jake was running the show and held the most power over who went home, as he was the first to name Nicole Mazullo. Even when Sophi brought up the fact that Annie was pushing for Jake and Alex to go out down the road, he chose "strength" over "loyalty."
And this vote is going to be the reason why he doesn't win. His need to be in control is already something people are clocking, and the fact that he chose to keep the person who knows he needs to get taken out over someone who was more socially flexible will be the beginning of the end for him.
Next Time on Survivor...
Though Kele now believes they've made the right move to improve strength on their tribe, they've actually only made things worse. Annie will see Nicole's exit as an opportunity to enlarge her target on Alex and Jake, which will result in more tension at camp leading to another immunity loss. But with the numbers down, Sophi and Jeremiah could possibly flip on Jake and Alex to go with Annie and get rid of the real weakness of the Kele tribe: Jake's attitude.
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