In a new era known for straightforward moves until blindsided by an idol, the last two episodes of Survivor 49 both highlighted a wide-range of targets going into Tribal Council. But episode 9 was probably the most chaotic, featuring all remaining players tiptoeing through the crosshairs of original enemies, new allies, and fake friends.
The common denominator in both episodes, though? Rizo Velovic. Yet somehow, the man, the myth, the legend—to be fair, he's pretty much earned that title at this point—has escaped both Tribal Councils only receiving a combined one vote and with an idol still in his pocket.
So why is it that Rizo keeps sneaking through the cracks with the most dangerous advantage in the game—that everyone is openly aware he has—while others use the logic that they can always get him next time? Is everyone else just that aware of the game? No!
Rizo is playing a nearly perfect strategic and social game
Rizo is manipulating his fellow castaways so well that none of them even think it's a possibility he could be influencing their decisions.
He's like one of those pretty frogs you see in the jungle. His happy-go-lucky personality makes you believe he's not a real threat until it's too late. MC Chukwujekwu knew this, so he targeted her and convinced everyone she was the right person to vote out over Sophie Segreti. Alex Moore also saw Rizo's threat level and tried to get close in order to play both sides, but Rizo saw passed him and turned everyone against him before Alex had a chance to enact any plan against Rizo.
And this is all happening while Rizo is standing openly on the beach with an idol dangling above his head like a warning sign that everyone keeps choosing to ignore.
If you've watched any season of Survivor you know that when there's an idol in play the best thing for your game is to figure out who has it and flush it. Whether that means taking the person out and watching them walk away with it in their pocket, or making that person believe they're going home so they play it even if the vote was always on someone else. The only person on that beach you want with an idol is yourself.
Why isn't anyone targeting Rizo to flush his idol?
This question was slightly answered in the real meat and potatoes of the episode—Tribal Council—when our players laid out how they currently see the game. While they all acted like they're on the same page, it's very clear from an outsider-looking-in perspective that they are not. They're not even on the right page for their own game. Rizo, Savannah Louie, and Sophi Balerdi are all way ahead on Chapter 17 while everyone else is still reading through the merge chapter thinking they've read farther than anyone else.
Host Jeff Probst mentions that Sophi has been at more Tribal Councils than anyone—she's attended 77% of them, including that night's, compared to next-in-line Jawan Pitts who's attended 66%—which prompts her to discuss how she feels like she's been awake the entire game and it's difficult waiting for others to get their bearings when she wants to play.
This then leads to Rizo sharing that the smartest way to play is to play with people who think the same way you do—the context being that this allows you to anticipate their next move—and with a known idol in his pocket, there's definitely a lot of attention on him. He'd be stupid not to think that votes are coming his way despite what anyone says.
And then Jeff asks Sophie what level of sophistication people have to be playing at to know there's an idol and still not immediately choose to flush it. Sophie goes on to share that this is the highest level of Survivor gameplay and strategy there's ever been. She throws in a reference to the common proverb, "better the devil you know than the devil you don't," but the problem is they don't actually know the game Rizo is playing.
So they've convinced themselves that this guy with an idol isn't as big of a threat as these masterminds that keep suddenly coming out of the woodwork. But they're not taking the time to trace the evidence and discover that these "masterminds" keep appearing out of thin air from Rizo's words. He's squeezed so many different narratives out of his conversations this season that he's produced at least 100 flavors of Survivor social game lemonade at this point. And his best seller? Making everyone believe he's nowhere near a threat to them.
These Survivor 49 players are putting so much nuance onto standard gameplay, and they're convincing themselves an easy decision is a strategic minefield.
But like she said, Sophi is the only player who has been forced to be awake this entire game. And if an upset is coming, it's going to be at her hands—especially considering she is the only person who currently knows she has an advantage in the game with Knowledge is Power. Sophi is the only player who has the means to take Rizo out, but because of her close ties to Savannah, the only way I could see that happening is a little further down the road when Rizo's alliance with Savannah becomes a threat to Sophi.
For now, it's Rizo's game and no one else even realizes it.