Survivor 49's Final 5 is now set after one alliance of three voted with the other during the last two tribal councils.
When Savannah Louie won her third individual immunity idol and was safe, and Rizo Velovic lied about how he had to play his idol with six players left, Sophi Balerdi was the obvious choice, but Kristina Mills and Sage Ahrens-Nichols realized they weren’t going to win sitting next to Steven Ramm in the final three.
Steven played his advantage perfectly, and Sophi did not, but the former didn’t know his allies were turning on him. It was a big blindside because he thought his side won. This betrayal sent Steven to the jury.
5. Kristina Mills
Kristina has had moments in the game, such as pointing out that Steven may be the only person left that can beat Savannah in challenges, but then she is a bit loose with her tongue in conversations. She doesn’t play close to the vest. She won’t have many enemies on the jury, but she’s done very little to deserve their votes if she makes it to the end.
4. Savannah Louie
Unless Savannah wins another immunity challenge, she is the most likely to go home at the next tribal. Rizo is protected, but he may not want to split votes with her if they both make it to the Final 3.
She’s played a great game, been a target for multiple tribals, and survived, and no one wants to sit next to her at the end. If she makes it to the end, she's a good bet to win, but it will be difficult.
3. Sage Ahrens-Nicols
If Sage can get Savannah out of the game, she seems the most likely favorite to win the final immunity challenge. She also has to be the favorite if she can maneuver herself into the final three players with Kristina and Sophi. She’s played a sneaky good game but isn’t necessarily as well-liked as others. There is a path for her to win, but everything needs to go perfectly for her in the final episode.
2. Sophi (Soph) Balerdi
It wasn’t necessarily her fault, but her playing the Knowledge of Power advantage did not help her.
When she initially announced that she had it at tribal council, the jury sat up and took notice. Then Steven countered her move by using his Block-a-Vote advantage before tribal. Because Sage and Kristina backstabbed Steven, it didn’t hurt Sophi in the short term, but that was her big move, and Steven negated it. She holds power now as the swing vote if Savannah doesn’t win immunity. Even if she can get Savannah out and survive to the Final 3, it probably won’t be enough.
1. Rizo Velovic
Rizo is guaranteed to make it to the final four, and that gives him the most power going into the finale. He’s arguably played the best game from start to finish. The fact that he’s had the idol for so long, that everyone knew about it, and that he was never forced to play is an incredible Survivor feat.
He’s also at the point that no matter how loyal he and Sophi have been to their alliance with Savannah, he may not beat her in the finale. Savannah hasn’t been the most popular player, but Rizo has flaunted his game and his idol, and that cockiness may turn off the jury. Still, if he makes it to the finale, he’s got to be the favorite, unless Savannah gets there too.
The Survivor 49 finale is shaping up to be an exciting ending to a fantastic season. Will the alliance of Rizo, Savannah, and Sophi do something few alliances have ever pulled off, which is to stick together to the end, or will the lure of a million dollars make them turn on each other? Loyalty, or the lack thereof, will be the key theme of the season 49 finale.