It's no secret that the Kele tribe has been the main storyline so far in Survivor 49, with most of the air time going to their chaotic camp life and devastating defeats in challenges. It almost feels like their losing streak has specifically set up a path for the exact power dynamic in episode 3, "Lovable Losers," to emerge and create a new foundation for the tribe.
(Spoilers for episode 3 ahead!)
Knowing, if they lost, it was already going to be a tough Tribal Council having to finally vote out a member of the majority alliance, it was made even more difficult when numbers and plans dwindled after Jake Latimer was medically evacuated from the game. Leaving Kele with only 3 players—who had another tragic performance in the immunity challenge puzzle—as they met Jeff Probst yet again to snuff someone's torch.
With Alex Moore possessing the hidden immunity idol, there was really a very limited amount of ways Tribal Council could go
While the great move would have been Sophi Balerdi and Jeremiah Ing working together to convince Alex not to play his immunity idol so they could vote him out—which they definitely were working towards—it was not the likely move.
Knowing both he and Sophi were Jake's day 1 allies, Alex has always had Sophi on his radar. Just last week, the two of them individually contemplated in confessionals taking each other out so they could have Jake's loyalty all to themselves. But now that Jake is gone, they don't have that string connecting them (or threatening their connection) anymore.
Though it's clear that Sophi trusted Jeremiah much more than she trusted Alex, the fact that he had the idol in his pocket meant that she needed him in hers. So if she had written down Alex's name, in the most likely scenario (that did happen) he played the idol and saw that he couldn't trust her moving forward and she lost her one core ally option left in the game. But by writing down Jeremiah's name, whether Alex played the idol or not, she would continue to play with Alex knowing she affirmed her loyalty and therefore could control his vote in the future.
This exact move confirms my pre-game predictions for Sophi, Alex, and the entire Kele tribe
I predicted an accidental early-on gameplay mistake would lead to Nicole Mazullo's elimination (stepping up to lead the first immunity puzzle, and losing) and that Annie Davis would go early if she didn't secure a tight day 1 ally (Alex was closer to Jake than her in the end). And while I didn't expect Jeremiah to be out so early, I did know he wouldn't be first, but that he also wouldn't make it to the merge.
However, no one could have predicted Jake's medical evacuation from the game. Though I did not have him in my anticipated Final 3 after he shared his emotional story about his father at the marooning beach, I expected he would get to the merge—and if it wasn't for that banded sea krait, he likely would have as the center of the Kele majority alliance.
So now that Kele is just Sophi and Alex, there's definitely about to be a shake up in the game as the tribe swap usually happens in episode 4 anyway. Sophi and Alex—especially if they land on different tribes—will be very valuable swing votes as Hina and Uli work to take down each other's numbers. Unless another unprecedented accident occurs, I expect both our Kele players to make it to the merge and, once they're there, have a similar power and strategy dynamic as Survivor 48's Kyle Fraser and Kamilla Karthigesu. Stealth mode activated!
But only time will tell...