The predictive betting markets giant shifted toward one Survivor 50 to win this season, and it's a huge surprise!
On Friday, Jan. 16, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket users started betting that one Survivor 50 will win this season, and that player is fan-favorite Aubry Bracco.
Aubry is the early favorite to win Survivor 50
Since betting opened on Kalshi, Aubry has been the early favorite to win Survivor 50. As of Friday, Aubry is up to a 69% chance to win the season, while no other player is above 5%. Those two players are Jonathan Young, Cirie Fields, and Joe Hunter.
Things have fluctuated on Polymarket through the day on Friday, but Aubry is up to a 78% chance to win Survivor 50.
In other words, a lot of people are putting their money on Aubry to win this season, and it's a lot of more money than they are putting on any other player. When these things happen, I always have to wonder if somebody knows something, and they're trying to cash in.
Look, I'm not going to pretend I know how Kalshi or Polymarket work, fully, but it looks like a lot of fans are starting to believe that Aubry is going to win Survivor 50. And, it's gaining steam as we speak.
Survivor 50 premieres on Feb. 25, 2026, but we won't find out who will actually win this season until mid-May, assuming that Survivor follows the typical schedule for its supersized 50th season. For the first time since season 39, Survivor 50's finale will also be a live event, Jeff Probst just confirmed to start the new year. So, if Aubry is the winner, we won't find out until mid-May.
At the time of publishing, it looks like the Survivor 50 finale will be on Wednesday, May 20, but CBS has not confirmed that date yet. Things are always subject to change!
Aubry should be treated as a huge threat in Survivor 50
It's interesting that fans think Aubry is going to win. I would have thought that she would be one of the first players voted out simple because of the incredible strategist she is. She's played three times, and the only time she wasn't specifically targeted early in the game, she almost won.
For me, Aubry feels like the perfect pick to become a new era winner. She's excellent in all phases of the game, incredibly well-rounded, but she can also win challenges. That's been a huge part of the new era. You have to win at the right time in Survivor, and Aubry has chance to make that happen.
We'll see just how accurate these bettors are, but I'm going to be paying much closer attention to Aubry in the upcoming season.