Who Won’t Be Surviving Tribal Tonight: Survivor Game Changers Ep. 1
Putting down fake money on a week-by-week basis, we wager who won’t be surviving tribal council for Survivor Game Changers Episode 1.
Welcome to “Surviving Tribal;” our very first in-season ongoing feature where we take a look at the odds of each player’s chances to make it to the next episode. Changing around the framework of the Dead Pool, three writers will compete throughout the Survivor Game Changers season with week-to-week wagers on who they think won’t be surviving tribal council that night.
Ahead of the debut of Survivor Game Changers later tonight, I read and watched as many pre-season interviews as I could to gather intel about what these players thought of each other. Based on my impressions, as well as some minor data analysis, I submitted hypothetical betting odds to my fellow writers. Giving them five-hundred virtual dollars to last for the entire season, I asked them to make a wager or two based on those odds.
Here are the Surviving Tribal betting odds for Survivor Game Changers Episode 1: “The Stakes Have Been Raised!”
If there are two tribal councils by the end of Episode 1, payouts will be reduced by half.
Tony Vlachos – 5/4
Going into this season, there is a lot of distrust surrounding Tony. He’s been scaring people, scanning people, and staring at people in Ponderosa, and everyone knows how unpredictable he is based on the aggressive playstyle he embodied in Survivor Cagayan. He’s the biggest early target so far.
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Ciera Eastin – 3/2 (Cheryl $50, Cody $50, Daniel $40)
Ciera’s been talking a big game in early interviews, coming in super confident. She’s been known to make big moves and pull in alliance members quickly, and everyone knows it. These two in succession spells success on some returnee seasons.
Sandra Diaz-Twine – 2/1
Nobody wants the Queen to get her third crown. The only reason she doesn’t have Tony’s odds is because of how long it’s been since she last played. She may be able to make friends quickly due to her loyalty a la “anybody but me.”
Cirie Fields – 2/1 (Daniel $15)
Despite never winning the game, Cirie is always seen as a huge threat because of her impeccable social skills. People will be lining up to take her out before she takes them out.
JT Thomas – 3/1
While many remember JT’s perfect game in Survivor Tocantins, more have the memory of giving a hidden immunity idol to Russell Hantz fresh in their minds. Pair that with the fact he flip-flopped a ton for the Heroes tribe on his last season, plenty will want to get a shifty winner early.
Zeke Smith – 4/1
With JT, Ozzy, and Brad Culpepper on the Nuku tribe, if they don’t win their first immunity challenge, people may gun for Zeke. It’s better to go with the devils you know, and Zeke’s ability to reach a tribe swap and pair up with Michaela might be enough to get him out immediately.
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Michaela Bradshaw – 5/1
Michaela is a tough woman, but she’s a relative unknown. She may be targetted early because everyone will be so scared to learn why she’s on Survivor Game Changers with just two weeks off from her last season.
Andrea Boehlke – 5/1
In a camp full of providers, those who have shown to be more sociable at camp may be enough to piss people like Ozzy off. Andrea’s a threat to find an idol or make good enough friends to give her one, so that likability factor has to run in people’s minds.
Ozzy Lusth – 6/1
You want Ozzy to be your swimmer and challenge performer pre-merge, but you can’t let him get to the merge because he may just run the gauntlet of individual immunity challenges. It all depends on how crazily people want to live up to the Game Changers motif.
Aubry Bracco – 6/1 (Daniel $20)
Should the Mana tribe fail to win their first immunity challenge, they might want to go leaner and meaner going forward. Getting out Aubry in this process would be a good cover for the real reason she’d be out first; she’s too strong of a strategic threat, aided with the confidence she didn’t have early in Kaoh Rong.
Malcolm Freberg – 6/1
Malcolm is a sarcastic, fun-loving guy that goes out and can play the game strategically, socially, and with strength in challenges. His personality may be a bit too overbearing at camp early, necessitating an early exit.
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Jeff Varner – 7/1 (Cody $100)
Varner is one of the more seasoned competitors in Survivor Game Changers, but he’s not as strong as Troyzan. Paired with his likability and his willingness to sway others quickly, that paints a small target on his back.
Brad Culpepper – 7/1
Culpepper did not work out as a leader during his time in Blood vs. Water, but he may be kept around as a strength number in the early going. He could go all the way if others let him, but the tribe may not see it that way.
Tai Trang – 10/1
Tai can make friends and influence people like no other. Due to his flipping antics in Kaoh Rong, however, he may prove himself untrustworthy, getting him kicked off the island early.
Troyzan Robertson – 10/1
For now, this should be Troyzan’s island. He will help carry the tribe in challenges going forward, making it unlikely that he will get voted out first (or possibly second).
Debbie Wanner – 12/1 (Cody $50)
Debbie may be annoying to some, but she has a brilliant mind. It wouldn’t be too difficult for her to convince others that Cirie, Zeke, or Andrea should be out before she is due to their threat levels early.
Sarah Lacina – 14/1
The only reason she gets voted out this early is if she makes some catastrophic blunder or rubs someone the wrong way. Right now, few perceive her more than a number, despite the possibility to win the game entirely.
Caleb Reynolds – 15/1
He’s perceived as a headstrong competitor, willing to almost die to help get his tribe salt and pepper. I can only see him getting out this early is if he got medically evacuated again.
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Sierra Dawn-Thomas – 20/1
This early going, the Worlds Apart players should be able to hide behind trees and not get noticed long enough to make the first few tribal councils. Although, due to Sierra’s height, she may still stand out.
Hali Ford – 20/1 (Cheryl $25)
Just like Sierra, she hasn’t made enough enemies or friends outside Survivor Game Changers to be considered an early threat. That could change as the season progresses, but if some are questioning why she’s here (including herself), then people aren’t going to throw their games to take out a perceived passive player this early.
Surviving Tribal Money Totals: Episode 1
Daniel: $425
Cheryl: $425
Cody : $300
Survivor Game Changers debuts tonight at 8 PM ET with a two-hour episode.