What if Cirie hadn’t gone out at the final six in Survivor: Game Changers?

Survivor: Game Changers just ended, but it’s time to ask the question: Could Cirie have won the game if she hadn’t been eliminated?

Before Game Changers started, yours truly said she hoped that Cirie Fields would win her million dollars after four rounds of Survivor. Alas, we know now that that didn’t happen. But just based on the way that Cirie went out, we have to ask. If the idol and advantage pileup hadn’t happened at the final six, would Cirie have won?

The short answer is “probably not.” But let’s get to the longer answer.

Let’s wind it back to the final six as shown in the finale. Cirie had actually patched her relationship up with Sarah. Tai confessed everything he’d been up to, which had prompted Cirie’s attempt to use the vote steal during Michaela’s elimination. If Tai hadn’t confessed, Sarah probably would have tried to take Cirie out anyway.

But recall what Jeff Probst said: none of the votes at the final six Tribal were meant for Cirie. She only went out because Tai and Troyzan played three idols between them. It seems as though the pileup would’ve been inevitable, given the planning that had gone around.

The only decision that doomed Cirie was Tai’s choosing to play his second idol. If he’d held onto it and not played it for Aubry, she would have gone home, based on the votes then shown. That brings us to a final five of Tai, Cirie, Brad, Troyzan, and Sarah.

Aubry went home next in the original timeline. Could Cirie have convinced Sarah and Tai to vote against Troyzan? That assumes that Brad would have won the immunity challenge. It’s not entirely outside of the realm of possibility, but it seems as though Sarah had been set on picking Tai and Aubry off and going to the finals with Troyzan and Brad. If Cirie had been in Aubry’s place, the pressure probably would have been even stronger.

After all, Cirie could make the case that she had come into the game as a huge target, and to make it to the finals was itself a huge accomplishment. She has always had a knack for talking in games of Survivor. Letting her get to the finals was dangerous in Micronesia, and it would have been dangerous in Game Changers.

At this point, even if Cirie does play again, she likely won’t make it to the finals. It hurts to know, because she is still one of the best Survivor players who’s never won. Simply playing the game for as long as she has (second all-time behind a certain Panama alum) shows her prowess when it comes to the game of Survivor.

Next: Game Changers post-season power rankings

Think our assessment is wrong and Cirie could have won? Make your case in the comments below.