Survivor season 35: Exploring the ‘pair and outsider’ winner theory
In the lead up to the Survivor season 35 finale, Courtney Yates gave a strategic theory about setting up for the Final Tribal Council. Let’s run the numbers.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays, Survivor fans! It’s been a bit hectic since Ben Driebergen took the majority of Final Tribal Council votes in his heroic Survivor season 35 win, but my mind has been buzzing ever since. We’ve covered a bit about that Final 4 twist, as well as who gave Chrissy her second vote, but with the holidays opening up more free time, I’ve had the chance to check out an excellent strategy espoused from a former player.
Over at People TV’s Survivor Fan Forum, Andrea Boehlke held a panel for the penultimate episode that featured former Final Tribal Council player Courtney Yates. While she typically provides feedback on players from multiple perspectives (including strategy, personality and game moves), she offered up a fairly interesting take on the Final Tribal Council dynamics when she only knew who the Final 5 were (Mike, Ryan, Chrissy, Devon, Ben).
She explained her idea best when talking about the FTC of China. “I thought we were all similar enough that we would be judged against each other without having some mom there to be like, ‘I have children, give me money,” Courtney explained. “When you have two, then there’s one that’s the outsider, then people can throw (votes) to that. But I was like, ‘Us three, united, we’re all basically the same; you have to pick from one of us.”
She went on to talk about the Heroes vs. Villains Final 3, explaining that Sandra Diaz-Twine was the outsider to the Parvati Shallow + Russell Hantz dynamic, further cementing the idea that she received votes at the Final Tribal Council because the jury panel (mostly comprised of Heroes) voted for the outsider. Furthermore, she doubles down that if Parvati or Russell had taken Danielle, the jury would have to pick one of them.
The “Pair + Outsider” Survivor winner theory she presents is quite excellent, and although it first came to pass in her season (previous Final 3 groups include the Aitu Four, Syndicate Alliance, Fei Long Alliance, a Gabon three where just one player remained loyal to an alliance, plus the Foa Foa Four), the theory holds up between season 21 and season 35.
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Survivor Nicaragua was the first case of the pair + outsider winner theory coming true. It’s hard to argue that Fabio had a strong alliance or a deal to get to the end, as he worked his way to the end through luck and an Individual Immunity run that saw him win three of four to pave his way to the end. However, Chase and Sash were part of a Final Four Alliance that saw the jury dislike Sash’s deceit and Chase’s indecisiveness, ultimately voting for the outsider in a 5-4-0 split.
A few seasons later, Survivor Philippines saw a Final Tribal Council where Denise Stapley sat beside Lisa Whelchel and another member of the Fulcrum Alliance. Those two would act as swing votes in the post-merge era of the season, reaching a deal with the Matsing Duo (Malcolm and Denise) to make it to the Final Four together. Denise’s position as the ultimate outsider, making it to every single Tribal Council of the season (requiring heavy strategic and social play) gave her a great story against the Fulcrum pair, leading to her 6-1-1 win.
The most non-traditional version of the Survivor pair + outsider winner theory comes in Worlds Apart. Mike Holloway made himself the biggest target after reneging on the deal for everyone to buy letters at the Day 25 auction and blowing up Rodney’s four-person alliance (which included him, Will and Carolyn). However, he won Immunity five times since that point, while playing a Hidden Immunity Idol on the other time he needed it, to make it to the end against the remaining Escameca alliance affiliates, Will and Carolyn).
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Survivor Kaoh Rong brought us the most controversial pair + outsider winner, although technically Aubry and Michele had been working together for most of the post-merge play. It was when Aubry convinced Tai to turn on his own alliance of Jason and Scot that we saw the jury sour on the two, as they removed Jason, Julia, Scot, Cydney and Debbie from the game. Michele, never going against the majority of the jury while maintaining a good social game, won as the outsider of Tai and Aubry’s strategic pairing.
2017 was a big year for the pair + outsider theory. Survivor Game Changers may have had the most fluid gameplay of a winner in recent years, as Troyzan and Brad Culpepper were a pair since swapping to each other on Day 14. However, Sarah Lacina worked her way between both post-merge majority alliances, expertly navigating her way through both sides and individual players to make it to the end by herself. The jury rewarded her strategy while ignoring Troyzan’s safety hiding behind Brad’s Immunity run.
Finally, we come to Survivor season 35, Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers. Chrissy and Ryan working as a pair since Day 9 made them a pre-merge force, and held dominance at the head of the Round Table until Ben, and the Final Four alliance flipped on them. However, with Ben making himself public enemy #1 after voting out Lauren on Day 33, made it to the end with idol play after idol play (plus Final 4 twist). Furthermore, Ryan and Chrissy’s jury arguments took parts of credit for plays away from each other, chipping away at their own chances while Ben strengthened his en route to a 5-2-1 win.
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Every time there has been an outsider + pair Final 3 in Survivor, the outsider has always won. Courtney Yates was absolutely right about this theory, and she made it before she even knew who made it to the end! It’s something to think about when dissecting future seasons as they approach the final days.