The majority alliance has dominated Survivor 48 since the merge, but that's about to change very soon. No, I don't have any insider scoops or anything like that. I've just watched a lot of Survivor to know that the biggest threat in episodes 7, 8, 9, and even 10, of any given Survivor season usually doesn't win. Not in the new era, anyway.
It's too general to say the biggest threats never win the season in the new era, but I do think the shorter format means weaker relationships, which results in players looking for for their own interests more ofthen, which makes it easier to get players behind a big-time blindside of the biggest threats in the game. So, let's look at the two most recent seasons where this has happened, though.
In Survivor 47, Rachel LaMont came out of nowhere, basically, to steal that season. She had very few options right after the merge. Her allies, Sam Phalen and Sierra Wright, were targeted, and there were a few votes that she wasn't even a part of. Then, she dominated! You can argue Kyle Ostwald, Gabe Ortis, Genevieve Mushaluk, and probably Sol Yi looked more likely to win than Rachel at that point.
In Survivor 46, Kenzie Petty was basically on the outside looking in at different times, although she did vote with the majority almost every Tribal Council. I think every single person thought Maria Shrime Gonzalez or Charlie Davis was going to win that season if they got to the end, but Charlie did get the end, and he didn't win because Kenzie survived against the odds all game long, won immunity challenges, won the fire-making challenge, and earned her victory.
There's still plenty of time for ANY of the players left in Survivor 48 to make some major moves, but I can almost guarantee that none of the three biggest threats in the game will win this season. Let's talk about who those players are.
Eva Erickson
With how the game has gone so far, Eva Erickson is in the best spot to win, which is the exact reason she won't actually win. She has multiple advantages, including Safety Without Power and an immunity idol, but unlike Rachel in Survivor 47, everyone knows about those advantages. Eventually, Eva is going to be targeted, and she's going to have to play her advantages right to win.
The kicker with Safety Without Power is that, even if she plays it correctly, it's likely that someone close to her could get voted out simply because she's leaving Tribal Council safe, but she's also not voting for another player. So, using that advantage in a 4-4 split, it actually hurts her allies. So, it's a tricky situation to navigate.
Ultimately, Eva is too good of a player to just walk to the end and win $1 million. Eventually, she's going to have to make a move to save herself or her allies. Will she be able to? That's the big question.
Joe Hunter
You can say the same thing about Joe Hunter. He's too good at challenges to stick around much longer in Survivor 48, and he seems like he has connections with everyone. That likely makes him one of the players no one will want to sit next to at Final Tribal.
Joe still has a crucial ally in Eva. He's still part of a solid alliance, or so we think, and he has a lot of opportunity to make some moves to position himself very well for the end of the game. But, if he slips up, and almost every Survivor player does during some point in the final stretch, Joe is probably going to get voted out. He's been safe for a few Tribal Councils in a row, but as soon as he loses, I could see the tribe turning on him, breaking up a powerful duo, and making sure that he's not able to win $1 million. That's a harsh way of looking at it, but it's how almost every player on the beach is going to be thinking as we get into the last few days in the game.
Kyle Fraser
Kyle Fraser, on the other hand, doesn't have the advantages that Eva and Joe have, but he's been playing hard all season long. He's already saved himself with an immunity idol. He has an immunity win. He has a good story, better connections, and a clear path to the end. Kyle is the player who has benefited from Joe and Eva in the game so far, but once the players start looking around, Kyle's game definitely stands out among the rest.
Honestly, I'm rooting for Kyle to defy the odds. I hope I'm wrong, but it just feels like this season is setting up to get away from him in a sense. He's done a good job staying out of it, but that can only last for so long. Eventually, Kyle is going to have to make another huge move to save his game. If he can pull it off, he'll win, but the odds are not in his favor.
If Eva is untouchable with her idols and advantages and Joe wins immunity, Kyle is the player who I would target next, and I think he's allies would probably agree that he's too big of a threat to keep around past the Final 7 or 8.
So, those are the players who should be very worried over the next two or three episodes. This is always the time with the big threats start getting voted out in order. It happens almost every single season.