We're basically halfway through Survivor 48. The tribes have officially merged, and we're going to see some players, unfortunately, voted out and form the jury who will choose the winner of Survivor 48.
Looking at the 12 players left in Survivor 48, I have a few players who just seem like there's no path to victory this season for a few different reasons. Let's take a look at who can't win Survivor 48 after the merge, starting with Joe Hunter.
Joe Hunter
Look, I think Joe Hunter seems like a great dude. I don't love predicting that a person like Joe can't win Survivor, but that's basically what I have to do at this point. There's no way Joe will win Survivor, and it's not even about his relationship with Eva Erickson, although that's a part of the reasoning, I guess. It's just that Joe is a huge physical presence in the game. He could, in theory, roll off several challenge wins in a row at the end of the game, and steal the game. If these other players have been paying attention for 46 seasons (they didn't see Survivor 47 before they played), they won't let Joe sniff the end of the game.
In addition, Joe is part of an alliance that includes an immunity idol. I don't think the players are going to target Joe and Eva because of what happened during the immunity challenge, but I do think they will be targeted because of the fact that everyone knows Eva has an idol. You can't let any duo control and idol and have such a close connection as the numbers dwindle. You have to make sure that the idol is played soon.
Sai Hughley
Sai Hughley is one of my favorite players of Survivor 48! Somehow, despite all the adversity, Sai is still kicking butt! Unfortunately, I just don't think Sai has enough momentum or a strong enough alliance to carry her to the end. I mean, she's received more votes at Tribal Council than any other player left in the game. She was clearly the second option in the first vote following the merge and was basically one vote away from going home.
And, that's why I don't think she can win. It's not because she's not a good player; it's because she's such a good player that she is going to be treated as a threat and probably eliminated soon.
Cedrek McFadden
Cedrek McFadden has been right in the middle of the action over the past few votes because of his status on the Vula and then Civa tribe. Unfortunately, Cedrek has been to Tribal Council as much as any player in the game, along with Sai. While I don't think Cedrek is going anywhere anytime soon, he hasn't shown much strategic acumen so far. In fact, he's really struggled to make big decisions, as we saw after Mary Zheng played her Shot in the Dark and Cedrek changed his vote three times to send home his top ally in Justin Pioppi.
Cedrek is not a huge threat, so I don't expect the players to vote him out. Honestly, he could be that coveted runner-up who the bigger threats want to sit next to at the Final Tribal Council. We'll just have to wait and see.
Chrissy Sarnowsky
Through six episodes of Survivor 48, I'm having a hard time thinking of a memorable moment with Chrissy. I don't mean that in a mean way. She was obviously a part of history with the big 2-1-1 split vote that sent Bianca Roses home. She's been a crucial member of the Civa alliance to start the game, and there's definitely a place in the majority alliances throughout the rest of the game.
Like with Cedrek, though, it feels like Chrissy is the type of player who might go deeper in the game because bigger threats are targeted. I don't think, unless she really makes some big moves in the next few episodes, that she should be considered a favorite to win Survivor 48 so far.
Watch Survivor 48 episodes on Wednesday nights on CBS and Paramount+!