Survivor 49 is officially heading into the merge in episode 7, and it's time to take a look at who is in the best position to win this season.
I picked four players who, I think, are playing better than the rest of the 11 players left in Survivor 49. And, I also wanted to share a few players who just aren't going to make it to the end based on their decisions, other players' decisions, and the game edit so far.
Let's get started who is probably in the best spot to win right now, Sophi Balerdi.
Sophi Balerdi
Why Sophi can win Survivor: 49: Somehow, after losing every challenge to start the season and having a 50/50 chance to go home in the third episode, the game has completely swung back in Sophi's favor. She's connected with the Uli alliance on the new Hina tribe, and she might have jumped a few original Uli members in that alliance by connecting to Savannah Louie, Rizo Velovic, and Nate Moore. They seem to be the strong alliance in the game right now, and Sophi has the most powerful advantage in the game right now in Knowledge is Power.
Obviously, Sophi still has to execute, but she has all the tools in the toolbox to make it to the end of Survivor 49 and win. She's overcome a lot of adversity, starting at the bottom and working her way to the top of the game.
Will it end her way? There are a few other players standing in her way, but she has a really good chance to make a deep run in Survivor 49.
Michelle "MC" Chukwujekwu
Why MC can win Survivor 49: MC is the most dominant player on this season of Survivor. She's one every single challenge so far, and she's the only player in the game who can make that claim. After Jake Latimer was medically evacuated from the game, MC is the biggest physical threat remaining.
That could be a good thing or a bad thing at this point in the game. Physical threats are often targeted, but MC could easily win a few challenges to keep herself safe. She always has a small group of Hina players left as allies. If the four Hinas work together, they still have an uphill battle against the Uli alliance, assuming they stay together. But, having a player like MC in the game as we move into more physical individual challenges as your ally is also a smart move for someone, as well.
I really like where MC is positioned to make a deep run. She might have to channel Ozzy Lusth to get close to the end, but she could do it.
Savannah Louie
Why Savannah can win Survivor 49: Savannah is one of the main characters of Survivor 49 so far. Since the first episode, she's been getting quite a good edit, even when the story isn't really revolving around her. That's always a big sign that a player might be going deep in the game. We have to get to know those big players on their way to the $1 million, you know?
In addition to the edit, Savannah is in the strongest alliance this season with Rizo, Nate, Sophi, and Jawan Pitts, although Jawan is probably on the outs for a few reasons. Anyway, even with Rizo, Nate, and Sophi, Savannah might have more than enough to make a run to win Survivor 49!
Rizo Velovic
Why Rizo can win Survivor 49: Like Savannah and Sophi, Rizo benefits from having strong allies. This really feels like a season that's going to come down to a Final Four of allies, and Rizo has the best chance to make it there. He also performs okay in challenges, and he has an immunity idol.
Sure, everyone knows about it, so he might need to play it sooner than later, but we've also seen players hold on to idols for a while and not need to play them if players don't really consider that player a threat. Could Rizo fall into that category? We'll find out!
Jawan Pitts
Why Jawan won't win Survivor 49: Jawan has been part of one of the major alliances of Survivor 49, and he has been loyal, almost to a fault. He's been in lockstep with Nate, Rizo, and Savannah since the start of Survivor 49, and while he gets on Savannah's nerves, he appears to be in a good spot heading into the merge. He has some allies. He's making connections, like Steven, and that could be good for him.
The one problem for Jawan is that he might have just made a major enemy by backstabbing his fellow, Shannon Fairweather, Uli alliance member to save Steven Ramm and Sage Ahrens-Nichols. Now, Jawan might be able to save face with his alliance and say Sage forced his hand, but I don't think Savannah needs another reason to vote Jawan out. She's already ready for him to go, and if that's the case, he might already be gone.
Sage Ahrens-Nichols
Why Sage won't win Survivor 49: Sage has been kind of on the outside of the main Uli alliance since the beginning of the game. She could be part of that core, but she already went after Savannah a little bit, which Savannah knows. Now, Sage took out Shannon, who was part of the stronger Uli alliance, and I don't think she's going to make it much farther in the game because of that.
Remember, in recent seasons, the merge gets really weird. The players who have no major allies need to band together to go up against the strong alliance, but that doesn't usually happen. Instead, we get players trying to find their way to safety, which generally looks like going after players who are an easier vote. What I'm saying is that I don't think any of the original Hina players would object to the Uli players voting out Sage, and the original Uli players don't really need Sage to advance in the game yet. That could change, but Sage is in big trouble.
Sophie Segreti
Why Sophie won't win Survivor 49: Sophie is last up on the list of players who won't win, and it's not about gameplay at all. Sophie has a decent chance to go far in the game. She is about to reconnect with some of the original Hina alliance, and if they work together, they might be able to put up a big fight against the stronger Uli alliance.
Now, the reason why Sophie won't win is purely for editing reasons. Other than a few little clips here and there, we basically don't know anything about Sophie. Six episodes into the season, that's a problem! We want to have some idea about who the winner is by now!
Look at the last three seasons, we spent a lot of early time with Kenzie Petty, Rachel LaMont, and Kyle Fraser by now. Of those three, Rachel made the biggest push late to win the game, but we still knew what she stood for, knew what she was trying to do, and learned more about her life. We only know that Sophie doesn't like fruit. That's not a good sign this far into the season.
So, that's the list of who I think will win (and won't win) Survivor 49! Stay tuned for more news about the season as it continues!