It's officially crunch time in Survivor 49! There is only one episode left before the Survivor 49 finale, which will air Wednesday, Dec. 17, on CBS and Paramount+.
There are only six players remaining in the game: Sage Ahrens-Nichols, Sophi Balerdi, Rizo Velovic, Steven Ramm, Kristina Mills, and Savannah Louie. We've said goodbye to 12 players already, and Sophie Segreti was the most recently voted out player in the season.
With just three Tribal Councils left before the end, I ranked the remaining players from least likely to win Survivor 49 to most likely to win this season. It's one of my favorite things to do at this point in the game. We're that close to seeing another player win $1 million and take home the title of Sole Survivor.
6. Sage Ahrens-Nichols
Sage is in a really tough spot in Survivor 49, and it's because of how well she's played the game. She's a threat to win to the other players, and she's orchestrated some of the biggest blindsides this season. And, that's precisely why she's the least likely to win.
Sage wasn't able to break up the Rizo and Savannah alliance even though there were potential opportunities to do so. When she and Jawan Pitts flipped to vote out Nate Moore, Sage asserted herself as a major player, and it probably raised her threat level just a little too early. If she was able to save that move for a little bit longer, the impact would have been even bigger, and it might have been enough to win the game outright. Now, Sage faces an uphill battle with other players becoming bigger threats in more recent episodes.
5. Kristina Mills
Kristina Mills has not played a bad game by any means in Survivor 49. It's just been such a close game that she needs a few big moves to go her way to actually get to Final Tribal Council. It reminds me of the spot Mitch Guerra was in during Survivor 48, although it's a little different.
To make a big run, Kristina needs an immunity win or something from that site of the game, and then she needs to take out some of the big threats in the series. The opportunities could be there for Kristina to make a few alliances and execute a strategy to get her to the end of the game.
There's no denying, though, that she's on the outside looking in based on how she's played so far.
4. Sophi Balerdi
Sophi is in a decent spot to win Survivor 49, but she has to make the right move to actually see it through and take control of this game. That's the challenge.
A few weeks ago, I thought the game was Sophi's to lose, basically, and it still might be, but as other players have been voted out, Sophi is in a really tough spot. Let me explain.
Everyone is saying she needs to use her Knowledge is Power to steal Rizo's immunity idol and vote him out. On one hand, I agree that might be the best play, but that only gets Sophi through one more vote. She still needs to get through two more votes and a possible fire-making challenge. And, on top of that, her best allies in the game are Savannah and Rizo who would absolutely be blindsided by that move.
Then, Sophi will have made the biggest move in the game at the perfect time, which would make her the most obvious target for the vote with five players left. It also basically guarantees that she's making fire for a spot at Final Tribal Council.
So, I really don't think it's as simple as just take Rizo's idol and vote him out. It also leads me to think that Sophi may target Steven, who emerged as a huge threat over the last few episodes. Savannah, Rizo, and Sophi do not want to sit next to Steven at Final Tribal Council. Even if Sophi makes that move, I don't know if it's enough of a big move to get her to win this game.
3. Steven Ramm
Steven Ramm has emerged as a threat to win Survivor 49, and that's probably why he's not actually going to win this season. Everyone knows Steven likely has an advantage of some kind following his Journey and immunity win in episode 11, and that has raised his threat level to an all-time high this season.
Right now, Steven needs to convince Sophi, Kristina, and Sage to team up to target Rizo and Savannah. Then, he has to depend on relationships and immunity wins to make it to Final Tribal Council.
It sounds simple, but it couldn't be more challenging. There are some serious roadblocks in his way, and Steven needs to play his advantage right and depend on some others to take out Rizo and Savannah. If that happens, he can win!
2. Savannah Louie
If the game ended today, I think it's down to Savannah and Rizo to win Survivor 49, but the kicker is that Savannah doesn't have the advantage that Sophi has, and she's actually been one of the two best in individual immunity challenges. She's a huge threat to win two more immunities and walk into the Final Tribal Council with the game in the bag. That's a very real possibility, honestly. I'd even say it's likely to happen given how the challenges have played out this season.
So, I think the other players, including Rizo, have to take out Savannah as soon as she loses. She's the single biggest threat remaining in the game, but will the other players notice that before it's too late while they try to manage their own games? That's the big question.
Savannah has had a lot of help in staying on the right side of the game after the merge, but she's also done more than any other player to dictate who goes home. Voting out Jawan was a massive win for Savannah, and while she wasn't alone in making it, it's clear she has benefitted the most from that vote, and it's opened up the rest of her game.
1. Rizo Velovic
Rizo still has work to do to build his Survivor resume if he wants to win, but I think his charisma, attitude, and overall gameplay will play well to the jury. You just can't not like him, and I think that matters in Survivor 49 when there haven't been a lot of strategic decisions that set players apart from the rest.
It's not like Survivor 48 when the audience could see Kyle Fraser and Kamilla Karthigesu playing everyone behind the scenes. The gameplay seems to be happening more out in the open, and Rizo can claim a lot of the moves to put a lot of players on the jury. He's not alone, but I'm anticipating a few more moves that he can claim as his own to finish out this season.
There's still a chance Rizo could lose this, of course. As mentioned, the gap between the top five players is basically non-existent right now. It's going to take more moves to win, but Rizo has a few tools in the toolbox (the immunity idol) and solid alliances to get him to the end.
Watch the penultimate episode of Survivor 49 on Wednesday, Dec. 10, on CBS and Paramount+! It's going to be the most important episode so far.