We're down to a few more episodes of Survivor 49 before the finale. There are seven players left, and for the most part, it's anyone's game. Because the game is starting to heat up, I ranked the seven remaining players by who is most likely to win Survivor 49.
The last few seasons of Survivor have come down to the wire, and I'm not expecting anything different in Survivor 49. Honestly, at this point, it's anyone's game. There have been several players who have made big moves, but no one has taken control of the game on an individual level yet. That's super exciting heading into the final two episodes of the season and the finale.
Let's get the ranking started with the player least likely to win right now, Sage Ahrens-Nichols.
7. Sage Ahrens-Nichols
A few weeks ago, it really looked like Sage had a chance to make a huge run in Survivor 49! She had just orchestrated a blinside on Nate Moore and flipped on her Uli "alliance." Unfortunately, Sage and Jawan Pitts, who was just voted out, struggled to seize the power they appeared to have taken. Instead, Rizo Velovic continued to play hard, keep his idol, and firmly carve out a power position in the game. With Savannah Louie, Sophi Balerdi, and Rizo teaming up with Sophie Segreti, Sage's days are probably numbered.
I would be so shocked if she wasn't voted out next simply because of how she's played so far, which is the ultimate testament in Survivor. You get voted out sometimes because of what you've done and because people are scared of what you can do, and that's why Sage is probably the next to go.
6. Steven Ramm
To me, Steven is in a bit of trouble right now. Of him, Sage, and Kristina, I think Steven is likely the biggest threat among them because he seemed to have good relationships with every person on the jury outside of Nate so far. If I'm sitting in a power position, Steven is one of the top players I do not want to take to the end.
Even if he doesn't have many big moves yet, Steven is a threat to win immunity. He's smart, and he has friends on the jury. That's a recipe for winning Survivor since the beginning of the game.
Like many of these players, Steven has to make a few more big moves to truly separate himself, but his survival is the most important part of the puzzle right now. If he can make the finale, he'll have a decent chance to win, but I think, without immunity, he will struggle to get through the next two votes simply because of his threat level.
5. Kristina Mills
Kristina has played an admirable game so far. She found a hidden immunity idol, and she played it, although she didn't actually need to. She's not the first, and it's definitely okay to play an idol when you think there's a chance you or a close ally is going home. Now, Kristina has a lot of work to do.
From the outside looking in, it appears Kristina is outside of the majority alliance, but she's probably not the first target, which means that she has some time to win over Sophie, Sophi, or even get Savannah or Rizo to flip on each other. If she can do that and then explain how she did it, Kristina can win. She is not out of this yet, even though the last few votes haven't gone her way.
4. Sophie Segreti
I ranked Sophie right in the middle because I simply do not have a good feel for her game. We barely got to know her early in the game, which is a bummer because she's such a fierce competitor. Since the merge, she's been one of the most important players in the game. She's awesome in challenges, and she's been a threat since her allies seemed to be okay with her getting voted out of the game.
Overall, it's going to take a huge effort from Sophie to win the game simply because she's a huge threat to win, and she doesn't have the allies yet to ensure she's safe, which means she probably has to win immunity (or several) to make the Final Three.
3. Sophi Balerdi
Sophi hasn't been forced to make a lot of moves, but she's doing a great job at surviving, and that's the name of the game after all. She's in a great position now to go and win the game, and she has the advantage (Knowledge is Power) to do it.
I wanted to put Sophi at No. 1, but I don't think I can justify having her that on the list just yet or just based on potential. We've seen several idols played this season, and not one of them has actually worked the way it was intended. Having the advantage is only a small part of the battle, and playing it to win is what separates these players.
If Sophi can pull off a Rachel LaMont-esque idol play at the very end, she could very well win this whole game, but she has to actually make the play the right way or use her advantage in a way that proves she is the best player of the season. I don't think she's done that yet.
2. Savannah Louie
Savannah Louie has seized a power position in the game since the merge. After Nate was voted out, Savannah found herself on the bottom with Rizo, but they have flipped the narrative completely. Part of that is luck. Savannah won a challenge that gave her a huge say in helping get MC Chukwujekwu out of the game, but she's won immunity more than any other player noted named Sophie, not Sophi, too.
And, now, Savannah is in a great position to go out and win the game. There are a lot of options for Savannah. She could potentially flip on her top allies, Rizo and Sophi, but it seems like this game is lending itself to a different kind of finish simply because there's basically two groups of three plus Sophie. Where Sophie goes could shift the game completely, but right now, Savannah is in a great position of the game to win. On top of that, she's basically controlled the game and the votes since that immunity win which gave her extra power in the game. Because of that one win, she was able to basically swap three straight votes in her favor.
1. Rizo Velovic
So far, Rizo has been playing a very dangerous game. He's basically played chicken with the rest of the players in every Tribal Council that he's been a part of so far. He definitely hasn't been shy about having an idol, and he's had to work overtime to make sure the vote stays off him. He's done an excellent job, with some significant help, to shape every vote since Nate was blindsided.
Part of that is a testament to Savannah, who I just mentioned, but Rizo is playing chess while the rest of these players are playing checkers. He is manipulating them in a way that I don't know if we've seen in the new era. It appears he's causing so much chaos in a very authentic way behind the scenes. It's not like he's Tony Vlachos out there running around. It genuinely seems like Rizo cares about the other players, and it seems like he wants to work with them. It's impressive, honestly.
If he's able to show his work and how he made it all happen, I think Rizo has the best chance to win Survivor 49 right now.
Watch Survivor 49 on Wednesdays at 8 p.m. EST on CBS and Paramount+!