Survivor 48 has reached the point where things start to happen quickly. During a split-tribe double vote, Cedrek McFadden became the first jury member after his former Vula tribemate Sai Hughely was sent home.
Since the merge, the five more physical players have formed a loose alliance based on the premise that a group of physical players has never bonded together and made it to the end of the game together. These players include Joe Hunter, Eva Erickson, Shauhin Davari, David Kinne, and Kyle Fraser. It could work in the right circumstances, but it requires everyone to buy in and trust the others completely.
Of course, this is Survivor.
Why the strong alliance won’t work on Survivor 48
Alliances like this haven't worked well in the modern era of Survivor. One reason is that players always promise the top three, which is nearly impossible to keep, and everyone knows it. They should align until they reach the top five, then let things play out however they might.
At first, this alliance of five strong, competitive players looked like it had the foundation to succeed. None of them wanted to be shields for strategic players who weren’t as strong in the physical aspect of the game. In theory, it could work. In theory!
As with many alliances on the show, there are often multiple reasons why things fall apart. In this instance, Kyle doesn’t trust the other members very much, and he has a tight but secret alliance with Kamilla Karthigesu. This bond supersedes his agreement with the other strong players.
David and Kyle, who were not initially in Shauhin's tribe, also mistrust him. They see Shauhin as a strong strategic player, as well.
Joe and Eva seem genuinely committed to getting these strong players to the Final Five together. The other three have agendas of their own that don’t include a long-lasting alliance of five. To this point, Joe and Eva have played fairly upfront, honest games, and they are a bit naive about the long-term future of the alliance of five.
It is disappointing for fans that this group is already breaking up. This alliance of five strong, physical players was a good idea. I don't think we've seen an alliance like this succeed before. On paper, it sounds like a great plan, one that could work if everyone holds steady, but that isn’t how the game is played anymore.
Joe and Eva also threaten everyone else because of their story together. It is obvious now to everyone that they are playing together. If all five people of the alliance were to make it to the Final Five, these two would still play together, basically making the other three play for one spot in the finale. No one wants to get very close to the end with Joe or Eva. It’s disheartening, but that is the game. Everyone is playing for $1 million, and no one wants to create a situation where it might be easier for someone else to win than themselves.
Don’t be surprised if Joe and Shauhin are sent to the jury sooner rather than later. These two seem to be prime targets, even outside their tenuous alliance. Regardless of whether this alliance sticks together, they are still outnumbered, and the other players could still pick them off.
This alliance was an intriguing subplot for season 48, but it will be a miracle if it stays intact over the next few episodes. This is why we watch Survivor.