Eva Erickson has played a very visible game in Survivor 48. For most of the game, she has either been directly in the majority alliance, or at minimum connected deeply to someone in the majority alliance (in the case of Joe Hunter while on original Lagi). Eva has also been a physical presence, with her athletic background aiding her in a. variety of different challenges.
Maybe most important of all, Eva has been a representation for the often highly underrepresented population in reality television, the Autism Spectrum population. Her courage to share her experience, her strengths, and her challenges with her tribe and the world has been an inspiration this season.
Eva represents something far more than just a game for many individuals at home who have never seen someone like them succeed in a game like this before, or felt they could not accomplish something due to their diagnosis or other factors. She is able to show that population that playing a social game like Survivor is possible for anyone, and to not just survive, but thrive, in the environment.
Given all these factors, Eva is a clear frontrunner to win the entire game. That said, nothing is a sure thing. What does Eva have to do, or at least what does she have to avoid doing, in order to win Survivor 48?
Eva is on a collision course for the final three
By all current metrics, it appears that Eva is on a crash course for the Final Three. She is in the core four alliance majority in a group of six; she is capable of winning immunity challenges, and she has an idol in her pocket. She has also held previous advantages, though they have mainly expired at this point. She has the protection of most of the tribe, never really being mentioned as a target, even as players discuss her number one ally, Joe.
These factors make it incredibly hard to get rid of Eva at this point. Not only would the minority have to convince one player to flip, but in all likelihood, two, given Eva's idol. Enough players still want to protect her that it would be hard, even if they flip, to convince them to take her out over one of her allies. And all this hinges on her not winning challenges, even though she has held immunity before.
There is one flaw in Eva's game, though, and that has been her social balance. While she has built bonds with certain players so strong that they are loyal to her at all costs, she has struggled to build connections with others. Specifically, there are few female castaways she has even attempted to bond with, let alone work with, in the game. That could easily come back to bite her as the numbers dwindle, and multiple social connections are essential.
Eva has several possibilities to get to the end, but how can she win?
Eva could conceivably make it to the end in a variety of ways. Most permutations would have her and her ride-or-die Joe at Final Tribal Council together, with a third player next to them. If the game lines stay the same, that player would likely be either Kyle Fraser or Shauhin Davari, probably the latter. The question is, does Eva win in that scenario?
The short answer is maybe. The long answer is, it depends on how much the individual social connections matter to the tribe. She has played a strong game, similar in a way to Joe but a tad more visible in terms of advantages. However, Joe has built stronger connections across tribe splits and lines. Shauhin has been under the radar most of the game, but has also built strong social connections across lines and made strategic moves when he needed to.
Therefore, in that set-up, Eva does not have the ideal chance of winning. Kyle would be no better, as he has played an even more impressive game than Shauhin, and arguably Joe as well. Kamilla Karthigesu has played an incredibly different game than Eva, and the underdog story may resonate, so she likely is not a good matchup either. Therefore, that leaves her with only a couple of paths to choose from.
Path one is the path of least resistance, but possibly risky in the end. Eva could make a final three pact with Joe and Mitch Guerra, and take the other three out in some order. That would leave the final tribal down to her and Joe, at which point she would have to convince the jury that the game she played was more valuable than the game Joe played. It would be a tough sell, but she could do it depending on how she approaches her answers.
Path two is a far riskier strategy short term, but could make her win more likely long term. In this scenario, Eva would have to approach Kamilla and Mitch to make a pact. Pull in Kyle, possibly, to make a majority, and take out her number one ally in Joe. From there, she would have to find a way to split up Kyle and Kamilla, and ideally make the Final Three with Mitch and either Shauhin or Kamilla, with a huge move and game agency on her resume, and hopefully a jury that values her moves at the end.
By following path two, Eva establishes the strategy piece that can counterbalance some of her weaker points in social bonds. It shows she had power and agency and made moves to control her fate. When you then add in her advantages, immunity wins, and being on the in-group most of the game, Eva likely would have the best shot at getting the votes, unless the jury was upset with her vote against Joe.
The flip to this is that it makes her path to the end harder long term. By eliminating Joe, Eva paints herself a larger target, and people may not trust her word, which could mean they blindside her at five. If she gets past that tribal council, she has as good a shot as any in fire-making and/or immunity wins. Staying status quo nearly guarantees her a spot in the Final Three, assuming she can keep Kyle AND Shauhin from flipping. But once she gets there, does she win?
These are the considerations Eva will have to make. Can her head win out over her heart? Can she play a ruthless game where she betrays people she has been so loyal to? In a way, she did with David Kinne, but that situation was a bit different. It seems unlikely, but it appears that would be her best shot at Sole Survivor. Time will tell whether she can pull the trigger.