Survivor 48 has seen its fair share of blindsides and big moves, as well as loyal alliances try their best to stick together as they navigate the game. With only eight players left, the conclusion is drawing near, and almost everyone in the game has an outside chance of pulling off a victory if the cards fall correctly for them. Pull of a big, public play in front of the jury, and it may be enough to earn the million dollars.
That said, there are certainly front-runners. Members of the majority alliance are clearly in the best position, but we have also seen some socially savvy players manoeuvre their way around the end game to win it all as well. In that vein, the three players highlighted each brings a different skillset and are in very different places in the game currently, yet all could conceivably win it all. Of course, anyone can still win, so the final weeks should be quite exciting.
If one of the three front-runners ends up winning, where would they stand among the all-time greats and legends of Survivor past? Do they still have time to completely change their legacy, and do they even care to do so? As Rachel LaMont, winner of Survivor 47, so eloquently stated in her jury speech last season, she did not care about legacy; she cared about winning.
1. Eva Erickson
Eva Erickson is one of the clear frontrunners left this season. While she and Joe Hunter have been pretty closely aligned through the season, Eva getting some additional focus and being placed in the driver's seat of last episode's vote against David Kinne puts her a bit higher on the potential list. Her success at gathering advantages could pay dividends for her in the end game.
What establishes Eva as a legitimate contender? For one, she is in the clear majority alliance, while putting her in enough of a swing spot to be needed by other players. Although she has not built the strongest social relationships with the entire cast, those she has been able to connect with protect her with a fierce loyalty rarely seen in reality television. Even David, whom she ultimately voted out, came out and admitted Eva was his top ally that he would have gone to battle with no matter what.
Second, Eva has the physical game down. For the most part, she has stuck with most challenges and taken some wins. With someone like David now gone, it only boosts Eva to a place of being one of the premier challenge threats left. While this could make her a target, I believe the insulation mentioned above will help her, and she could go on a physical run towards the end of the game to get herself into the final tribal.
If Eva were to make it to the end of the game and pull out the win, where would she stand in the overall winner rankings? Without digging into an exact list, she likely places around 30 in the upper bottom half of the winners. She has played a good game, but has not had a marquee move or dominant run of gameplay yet. Her social game is strong in parts but flawed in others, and her rigid thinking has dug her a hole a few times in the game.
Eva would be a good winner, and a deserving one. Her openness with her struggles and challenges, and her self-understanding and pride with her autism, is an inspiration. Young viewers watching her play the game will have someone to look up to and relate to. That said, to fairly rank her, she has some gameplay flaws, ones that are hard to ignore when compiling full ranking lists.
2. Kyle Fraser
Kyle Fraser was part of potentially the best move thus far in the game. However, there is more to his game than just a flashy blindside. He is a front-runner because of the full package of social, strategic, and physical gameplay. He has limited holes in his game, which makes him a dangerous threat. The biggest problem he will have getting to the end, however, is finding a way to manage that threat level.
Kyle's first strength that could get him a win is his social game. He has built relationships with people on both sides of the tribe, while earning major loyalty from them as well. He has worked his way into the majority alliance, and even when a player like David became suspicious of him, the alliance stuck by his side and took out David instead. That type of social connection has staying power.
Second, Kyle's physical game has been strong. He has won an immunity challenge and has often performed well in others. With David gone, he also moves up the ranks the same way Eva does. He could go off and win multiple challenges in a row, assuming they fall into his type of wheelhouse. That is an asset that he can bring to the final tribal council argument, as long as he makes sure that he does not paint too big a target on his back.
Kyle's biggest move right now, though, is the move he made to survive the tribe swap. He and Kamilla Karthigesu were tribe swapped into a 3-2 minority. Worse yet, the three they were with had a pre-established, loyal alliance. Using a hidden immunity idol and an extra vote, combined with their social skills and acting, the pair successfully idoled out major player Thomas Krottinger. Somehow, Kyle still managed to repair relationships and is tightly aligned with both other members, Joe Hunter and Shauhin Davari, even now.
Kyle will have to manage his threat level towards this end game because he is a serious all-around player. Should he make it to the end and win, though, his game would likely age well. He would probably slide in around the 15-20 range all time. He has not played the most dominant or flashy game, but he has proven himself enough in all facets of the game to be a top 25% type of player, similar to Jeremy Collins, Sarah Lacina, JT Thomas, or Tommy Sheehan. Solid, all-around games that get the job done.
3. Kamilla Karthigesu
Kamilla is probably the player on this list who has the lowest functional chance of winning. Unlike the other two on the list, Kamilla is not in the power alliance. Shauhin could slot in here, but it feels like Kamilla could be a player who is set up to bounce back from the bottom. Rachel LaMont recently heaped piles of praise on her game, and if she can survive long enough, she has more than enough of an argument to win over the jury.
Kamilla's greatest asset is, hands down, her social game, and Rachel even highlighted it on this week's On Fire podcast. Despite the fact that she is currently in the minority alliance, she has built strong relationships her entire way through the game. Specifically, the relationship she established at the tribe swap with Shauhin has helped her out, but her greatest asset is the aforementioned Kyle.
Kyle has literally been willing to essentially put his majority alliance on the line to maintain his alliance with, and protection of, Kamilla. She has also built close bonds in some capacity with nearly every other member of the tribe. That social gameplay is often recognised at the end of the game with the jury, not unlike Kenzie Petty just two seasons ago.
The difference between Kamilla and Kenzie, though, is that Kamilla has played a better strategic game. Kyle gets the credit for the flashiness of the tribe swap move, as the one holding the hidden immunity idol. Kamilla deserves just as much credit for the move, and possibly even more, depending on who lays claim to the original idea. Arguably, her ability to make it to the end of the game, should she pull it off, would be an additional strategic argument as well, given that she has been playing the merge from the outside of the majority.
Kamilla winning would be impressive, given her standing in the game and the work she has had to do to minimize her target level and be protected by those with more say in the direction of the game. Her game is more subtle, without a ton of agency, but she has played one of the best games she is able with the cards she is dealt. With that, a win from her would be an underdog story that resonates with fans. That likely would place her around the 15 to 20 range, similar to Kyle, but for wildly different reasons.
Any of the three winners above would have an argument as being not just a deserving or successful winner, but a good one at that. All of them have clear strengths that have gotten them this far, and should be the front-runners to win. Shauhin has an argument to be made as a front runner as well, and Joe has played a great game, but a bit lacking in the edit. None of these players would be top-tier winners, but all have proven to be remembered in history as a solid addition to the Survivor winner books.