Before the Survivor 49 began, we made some first impression predictions for all 18 players across the original Kele, Hina, and Uli tribes based on one minute interviews on how they planned to approach the game.
Now that half of our starting castaways have been eliminated from the competition, it's time to check in on our remaining players to see which of our predictions have come true or if anyone has changed their expected fate in the game.
But first, a few Survivor 49 stats!
- Of our original tribes, the game is currently made up of 22% Kele, 33% Hina, and 44% Uli.
- 100% of this season's individual immunity wins have gone to women so far.
- Sophi Balerdi has attended the most Tribal Councils at 75% (but she's only voted correctly 66% of the time).
- Kristina Mills has attended the least amount of Tribal Councils at 12% (only 1, which she voted correctly at).
- All 3 starting camp beware advantage idols were found, but only 2 have been played and neither needed.
Now, let's check in with our players and their new potential fates.
Alex Moore
Original Prediction: He needs to make the right allies early on, but he'll definitely make it to the merge. Once there, though, his desire to make moves will become a threat and others won't want to take him to the end.
Current Standing: Due to the unfortunate medical evacuation of his day 1 ally Jake Latimer, Alex actually ended up in a great position going into the merge. A double tribe swap left him a free agent and a swing vote, which made him a very popular person to align with and someone very necessary for the other castaways to have in their pocket in order to move forward in the game. If he can team up with Sophi properly, they could pull off a stealth alliance a la Survivor 48's Kamilla Karthigesu and Kyle Fraser and could possibly strategize their way to the end together.
Jawan Pitts
Original Prediction: Jawan will start on the outs with his tribe, and I could see him being one of the first people going home just due to the dynamics of the tribe he was placed in.
Current Standing: There's no doubt Jawan was, has been, and is on the outs of the original Uli alliance, but he was lucky to be on a winning tribe at the beginning of the game and did not end up at a Tribal Council until after the first tribe swap when he was in a position of power in the Hina vs. Uli war. And while Savannah Louie has been gunning for his since the beginning—and he voted out one of her top allies—he's managed to scrape by as a number for her and the Uli alliance, but I don't expect his luck to hold on forever and eventually Savannah won't be able to put up with his flip-flopping anymore.
Kristina Mills
Original Prediction: Kristina has the potential to play an incredible social game and hold the loyalty of multiple players at once without causing them concern, which could lead her straight to Final Tribal Council. But that's a scary person to have next to you, and the closer she gets to the end, the bigger a target is drawn on her back.
Current Standing: Kristina was in the worst-best position in the game up until the merge. She was in the majority alliance on all three pre-merge tribes, none of which had to go to Tribal Council. The only other person in her same position was Sophie Segreti, but she was warned by MC Chukwujekwu that people at the Hina camp had tossed her name around. So while Sophie had to start thinking strategically in the early days, Kristina has been in a comfortable position, not needing to focus on strategy until day 15 when her top ally's idol went back into play, and she searched the jungle in a defensive maneuver to ensure an Uli didn't get it.
Though Kristina may now have an idol in her pocket, her gameplay mindset is still in early days while everyone else has already played and been played at least once. She's in a naive position which will either make her an easy vote or someone people believe they can easily beat in the end.
Rizo Velovic
Original Prediction: Fans have had feelings about Rizo ever since he introduced himself as "Rizgod" during the Survivor 48 finale, but I think he'll have a fun energy around camp and people will use him as a number at least through a few episodes past the merge.
Current Standing: That season preview did not do Rizo's performance justice. So far this season, he's spearheaded a huge amount of strategy and influenced most of the votes he's been a part of while making everyone believe his day 1 ally Savannah Louie is the true mastermind. Even though he has the idol in his pocket—and he's been smart enough to evade using it despite being the initial target at multiple Tribal Councils—being seen as the no. 2 in a power duo is the most dangerous place to be and if players are trying to take down Savannah, they will likely do it by first eliminating Rizo.
Sage Ahrens-Nichols
Original Prediction: While her military background will be an asset around camp, the switching between her natural goofy personality and strategic, leader mind will be confusing and might start to rub people the wrong way. She'll make the merge, but might not get much farther than that due to her need for order.
Current Standing: Sage quickly became a fan favorite this season, specifically because of her rivalry with Shannon Fairweather. While she's been on the lucky side of most episodes, not ending up at Tribal Council until episode 6, there's no doubt she's been working strategy since the very beginning and is now finally getting a chance to implement it. However, strategy without power spells "threat" and if she doesn't get people behind her again—like she did with the Shannon vote—she might become a target herself sooner rather than later.
Savannah Louie
Original Prediction: Savannah will be the "villain" of Survivor 49 and this strategy will lead to her winning the entire season.
Current Standing: At this point in the game, I still predict Savannah will win it all! Even when she found herself on the bottom, she forced herself into a position of power and landed an advantage in her pocket. While she might not be liked around camp, she's feared because she's smart and social and can convince anyone to vote with her. Especially with Rizo Velovic as her no. 1, she's still my lock to win.
Sophi Balerdi
Original Prediction: Sophi's plan to "play dumb" and hid behind "meat shields" will work right up to or after the merge when her clear need to lead comes out and alerts her fellow castaways that she's smarter than she's pretending to be.
Current Standing: You might think her original plan went south after her day 1 ally—and definite late-game meat shield—Jake Latimer's medical evacuation, but in fact, she's kept on her core path so far, and it's working well. Rather than moving forward with her closer ally Jeremiah Ing, Sophi opted to align with her previous rival Alex Moore (the meat shield of the two). And then once the tribes swapped and the Kele members were split up, she buddied up to Uli leader Savannah Louie who she is still tight with, but who she has not shared her Knowledge is Power advantage with.
Recently, though, Sophi expressed to Sage that she could be swayed from Savannah's voting plan if a better one was presented, so it's possible that Sophi's smarts are about to attempt a big move against the original Uli power player that includes stealing her day 1 ally, Rizo Velovic's, not-so hidden immunity idol. But if Savannah doesn't tell Sophi about her extra vote, a big move could be game over.
Sophie Segreti
Original Prediction: Sophie will lean into the social game while secretly analyzing every situation on overtime, just by her nature as a corporate strategist. She has the potential to make it to the end if she can keep her true intelligence under wraps with the help of a day 1 ally.
Current Standing: Sophie's been flying under the radar as one of two players who didn't attend a single Tribal Council until the merge. But she was on the bottom of the original Hina alliance that whole time, so most of the other castaways saw her as someone they could use as a number until the time came to vote her out. But in trying to orchestrate Rizo Velovic's elimination, she actually proved she's a lot smarter and more observant than anyone was giving her credit for. This caught the attention of the Uli alliance who will likely use her as a number to flush out the rest of Hina—since she already helped them get rid of MC Chukwujekwu—and a few of their own who have flipped until they don't need her anymore and vote her out.
Steven Ramm
Original Prediction: Steven will be the puzzle master of the season and will be a good person to have around for the tribe portion as well as the beginning of the post-merged game. But his smarts won't be celebrated once the numbers start growing smaller and his target gets bigger, and he'll be eliminated before Final Five.
Current Standing: Steven's played an incredible social game and while he's let a few key people in on his true level of intelligence while forming alliances, he's never displayed himself as an outright leader, but more as someone willing to have ideas bounced off of him. This is a great place to be usually. However, after episode 8's blindside of MC Chukwujekwu, I could see a world in which Sophie Segreti flips, wants to target Kristina Mills, but the Uli alliance stealthily goes after Steven while Hina divides their votes between Savannah and Rizo to try and flush the idol, sending Steven home next.
Watch Survivor 49 episode 9 on Wednesday, Nov. 19!