If you were asked to list the greatest Survivor players of all time, there’s no doubt that Ozzy Lusth’s name would be up there. While he’s never won, he’s one of the players who has built the show into what it is now and is woven into the tapestry that is Survivor.
Which is why it was only a little surprising to see him on the cast list for Survivor 50. He’s surely a legend, so it makes complete sense he’s present, but he’s already played four times, and we weren’t sure if he’d want to come back. However, now that he is, it’s clear he’s not playing the same game he once was, but it’s not clear exactly how it’s changed.
I’m a facts person, so in episode 3 when host and executive producer Jeff Probst called out Ozzy for being at every Tribal Council so far this season—now including episode 4’s Tribal Council—I had to look back and see how that compares to his previous seasons.
Looking only at the first four episode immunity challenges, here’s how Ozzy performed in his prior games:
Season 13 (Survivor: Cook Islands): 2nd place in first immunity challenge, lost the next two, won the fourth.
Season 16 (Survivor: Micronesia): Lost the first two immunity challenges, won the next immunity challenge, lost the fourth.
Season 23 (Survivor: South Pacific): Lost the first immunity challenge, won the second, lost the third, won the fourth.
Season 34 (Survivor: Game Changers): Won the first two immunity challenges, 2nd place in the third challenge, won the fourth.
In seasons 13 and 23, he had a 50% win rate after the first four immunity challenges. Season 16 showed a 25% win rate and in 34 he had a 100% immunity challenge win rate by this point in the game. That gave him a 56.25% average tribe win rate across all four seasons within the first four episodes.
Now, factoring in a 0% win rate in Survivor 50 puts him at a 45% average tribe win rate overall. But, if you look at each episode individually, across four seasons he won two and lost two immunity challenges in the first episode. Same goes for episodes 2 and 3. Then we get to episode 4 and his win rate across goes up to 75%—winning three challenges across four seasons in the fourth episode.
So looking forward to episode 5, how might Ozzy’s tribe perform this week? Well, historically he also sat at a 75% win rate for episode 5. But that means that historically, Ozzy’s tribes have gotten better as the season progressed. And while this season is playing by new school rules—vote out tomorrow’s threats, not today’s weak players contributing to the challenge loss—and Ozzy is best known for his old school style of gameplay, we could start to see a change in him this episode.
Especially considering he’s angry after being blindsided by Mike White’s elimination in episode 4. Will his anger help fuel him to a challenge win? We’ll have to see what happens when Survivor airs a new episode this Wednesday, March 25, at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.