We're starting to see a pattern in Survivor 49. With each new episode we continously find ourselves wondering if this is the moment Rizo Velovic goes home or if he and Savannah Louie will be able to pull off another blindside—and whether or not his idol stays in play through it.
And, episode 10 was no different. After Savannah lost the immunity challenge to Sophie Segreti, she became vulnerable for the first time in weeks which had Sage Ahrens-Nichols crafting a plan with Steven Ramm, Kristina Mills, and Jawan Pitts to finally put the strategic and physical powerhouse on the jury. But with only eight people left in the game, the numbers were trickier to maneuver than ever.
Based on past votes, there was no doubt that Sage and Jawan trust each other and Steven and Kristina trust each other. Steven trusted Sage enough to tell her about Kristina collecting a hidden immunity idol, which gave Sage enough faith to work with the duo, though Jawan didn't like the fact that Steven didn't share that same information with him.
So while those four were concocting a plan to eliminate Savannah, she was working with Rizo and Sophi to figure out a plan to eliminate Steven. They still thought they had Jawan and Sage on their side, though, including them in this plan. But, even though he didn't fully trust Steven, Jawan knew of the two, Savannah was the bigger threat and she needed to go sooner rather than later.
Is a blindside still a blindside if you know it's going to happen to someone?
Now, Sage and Jawan are reporting back to Kristina and Steven that they need to use the idol on Steven to protect him in order to null the votes against him and blindside Savannah. But somewhere in the middle of all of this is Sophie sitting pretty with her immunity necklace, deciding whether she wants to vote out Savannah or keep Savannah.
As she's weighing her reasons for why she would want Savannah in the game, the main point she provides is that she's a good shield. But in making this statement, Sophie's once again proven she doesn't know how far into the game they actually are, following up last week's Tribal Council statement about this being the highest level of Survivor strategy that's ever been played and how nuanced everything is (in recongition of why Rizo's idol might not be a threat that needs to be flushed over someone else going home).
Coming out of episode 10, Sophie will be in the Final 7. Keeping Savannah around doesn't keep the target off her in everyone else's eyes, it increases her threat level in Savannah's eyes. Sophie and Steven are the only other two people who have beat Savannah at individual immunity challenges this season. While Sophie might think she's in a Final 4 alliance right now, picking off Steven, Sage, and Kristina next, the reality is Sophie is the biggest threat to Savannah there.
As the pool of challenge players grows smaller and smaller, Savannah needs less people around that can beat her and Sophie's proven to be her biggest opponent. The second Sophie doesn't win that necklace, Savannah will be coming for her, you can bet on it. And if Sophie thinks she's safe because of any conversation she's had with Savannah, she should think again. Savannah proved she has the acting skills to fool someone in this week's Tribal Council (watch below).
And I would definitely say the best way to describe Tribal Council would be "theatrical." Rizo playing a fake idol, Savannah pretending to be shocked that Jawan flipped. Those two are controlling the whole game and no one else realizes that not a single move can be made in the jungle that they don't know about because they've carefully crafted a devious game that's been working in their favor for the last 17 days.
So when it came down to blindsiding Jawan or Savannah—taking out a big threat at a critical moment in the game—it was a perfect opportunity for Sophie to build her resume by double-crossing Savannah and Rizo by having Kristina play her idol on Jawan, then having the five of them split the votes between Rizo and Savannah so even if he did play his idol, one of them was still going to the jury. And, Sophie would have gotten credit for that.
In the end, Sophie decided Jawan was a bigger threat to her long game than Savannah and voted him out.
Whether she realizes it or not, this decision just lost her $1 million. If Sophie is able to find her way to the Final Tribal Council over one of the core three of Savannah, Rizo, and Sophi, there's not a single player on that jury who will look at this moment in the game and agree that eliminating Jawan was a better strategic move than eliminating Savannah, especially if Savannah is sitting at the end.
And as soon as Savannah takes immunity back from Sophie, Sophie's going to realize her mistake. The running (not-so-funny) joke of the season was that Jawan was cursed from winning post-merge challenges. He was not about to take immunity from Sophie. But Savannah's now won it twice, literally swiping it from Sophie's second place finish. I wouldn't be surprised if Sophie finds herself on the jury within the next couple of weeks whereas she might have had a chance at winning a spot in the Final 3 if she'd voted out her biggest challenge competition.