3 reasons Charlie Davis will win Survivor 46 (and 2 reasons he won't)

We're only days away from finding out the winner of Survivor 46. There are five people remaining in the game, but I don't think any have as good of a chance to win the game as Charlie Davis.

In the days leading up to the Survivor 46 finale, we're going to share a few reasons why each player will win (or won't win) at the final tribal. It makes sense to start with Charlie because, as I said, he seems like he's in the best spot to win Survivor 46.

Charlie started the game on the Siga tribe, which won or finished runner-up in every immunity challenge except for the challenge before the merge. Early in the game, I believe it was on Day 3, Charlie and Maria agreed to form the "Malcolm and Denise alliance," a tribute to Malcolm Freberg and Denise Stapley on Survivor: Philipines. There's no doubt this alliance has been the most powerful in the game so far. While rarely the target, Charlie and Maria have pulled the strings on every single vote, besides the vote to take out Q, and that's a major reason they're both still in the game.

Why Charlie will win Survivor 46

We picked the top three reasons why Charlie will win Survivor 46, starting with his social game.

Charlie is playing the best social game in Survivor 46

Charlie has played the best social game in Survivor 46 so far. He's never been targeted by anyone outside of his alliance (and Q), and he survived that vote because of the social game he's played. From the viewers' perspective, Charlie has great relationships with everyone he's played with. It also helps that he's just a very kind, friendly, and fun person. The Taylor Swift-Metallica song battle with Ben is an iconic moment!

Charlie also chose correctly at the last reward. Liz and Kenzie obviously have their own games going on and had eyed a Maria blindside before it was brought up on the reward challenge, but Charlie choosing Kenzie and Liz likely saved his game.

I don't think anyone has a bad word to say about Charlie, and that's HUGE advantage at final tribal.

Charlie has been on the right side of every single vote so far

Of all the votes he's been involved in, Charlie has been in the majority on every single vote. No other player remaining in the game can say that. Ben, obviously, had a chance to be in the conversation before inexplicably writing Kenzie's name down instead of Venus.

If Charlie makes it to the final three, he has a chance to look at every person on the jury and say that he had a role in voting out every single person. Obviously, we don't know how the final two tribal councils will go. Charlie, if he wins immunity and even without immunity, could play a major role in those last two jury members. He has good relationships with everyone, as mentioned, so I don't think he's going to lose many votes for playing a bigger role in the finale votes if that's how it works out.

We also haven't seen the full scope of Charlie's strategy. He built a lot of trust with other players. Tiffany revealed that she had a great relationship with Charlie that we didn't see, and he was the reason that she didn't play her idol. They had a plan to use Tiffany's idol to take out Maria, and she thought he would have come to her when the vote shifted to her. He didn't, and she was eliminated.

Charlie survived Maria's attempt to take him out

Charlie gets lucky, a bit, with Maria winning immunity and choosing that was the time to take him out in episode 12. Now, she's left in a very awkward position. Everyone has to survive some votes like this, and it worked out incredibly well in Charlie's favor. Ben and Charlie have been working together for so long. I'd find it hard to imagine that Ben and Charlie will break up their alliance this late in the game. They could pull Maria back into the fold. If they can convince Kenzie or Liz, they'd have a trio to control the rest of the game.

We still have two crazy tribal councils left, but Charlie survived the most important one so far! That's maybe not a reason to win the game, but I do think there's a lot of credit to go around for taking out Q with an idol. Charlie gets credit for outlasting an attempt by his longtime ally to remove him from the game, even if he needed help to make that happen. And, it's an incredible mistake by Maria. It looks like, at the buzzer, she lost control of the game and didn't understand what was going on. That's a bad look with the jury there to witness it all, and it all works in Charlie's favor.

Why Charlie won't win Survivor 46

Look, I think Charlie has a great chance, but there's a lot of game left. If Charlie doesn't win, it's going to be because of one of these two reasons.

Charlie is the biggest threat remaining

There's been a lot made about the gameplay this season, but there's a reason these five players are remaining in the game. They are not stupid, and it's clear that Charlie is playing a great game. That's been acknowledged. There's no doubt he and Maria are the top two threats left in the game. Maria has been exposed as a more villainous player lately. She made Liz do rock-paper-scissors with Q to go on the pizza reward to absolve herself of responsibility. She was clearly allied with Q for longer than she made it seem. And, she was just revealed as the person who tried to take out her top ally in the game and failed. She lost points in episode 12, but she's still a great player. We'll talk about that more in a minute.

But, there's a strong argument for Liz, Kenzie, and Ben to make that Charlie is the most likable player remaining. You don't want to sit next to the most likable player who also controlled the game, won challenges, and made big moves. That's a winning resume if I've ever seen one!

So, if Charlie fails to win immunity or win over at least another vote or two at the next tribal council, he could be in trouble simply because he's played such a great game.

Maria might win over the jury

For most of the season, Maria appeared like the favorite to win. She's controled almost every since the merge. She's developed relationships with many players on the jury. She's won three individual immunity challenges, the most in the season so far. She's playing an incredible game.

As I mentioned, Maria has made some crucial missteps in the last few episodes. Making Liz fight for her reward instead of just taking Q or choosing Liz was a mistake. Maria emerged as the top player in the game, and it rubbed people like Venus the wrong way. Venus called out Maria at her last tribal council. And, then, Maria is basically solely responsible for keeping Q around, trying to ally with him, and trying to use Q to take out Charlie. It backfired, but there's still time for Maria to turn it around.

If Maria plays her way into the final three by winning immunity or somehow convincing the players to choose her, Maria has a great chance to win. And, if she can sell herself at final tribal, there's a true chance that she could win over the jury and take home the $1 million prize.

Will Charlie win? We'll find out during the Survivor 46 finale on Wednesday, May 22.