Who is going to win Survivor 46? We'll find out within the next 24 hours when the Survivor finale airs on CBS!
Before we get to the season finale for one of the most chaotic seasons of Survivor in recent memory, I took a stab at predicting how things will shake out and who will win Survivor 46!
Unless there is some wonky that happens, we're going to seen an immunity challenge, a tribal council, another immunity challenge, and then tribal council where the winner of immunity will choose who they are taking to the final tribal council. The other two players will make fire for a spot in the final three!
So, let's get things started. Going home in fifth place on Survivor 46 will be...
5. Maria Shrime Gonzalez
Yeah, there's a chance if Maria doesn't win immunity that she could rally the support of Charlie and Ben to take out Liz or Kenzie. She could also convince Liz and Kenzie that Charlie is the bigger threat and they need to keep her and take him to the final four. Personally, I don't see that happening.
After the last tribal council, Maria made her big play, and if Q had just played his hidden immunity idol, she would have been in a prime position to win the game. And, that's her biggest mistake. She told Q that he didn't need to play his idol, but the safe move would have been to err on the side of caution and ensure that she and Q made it into the final five. She didn't, and now, she's on the bottom.
There's so much pressure on Maria to win immunity at the final five, and I just don't see that happening. It rarely happens where the person who is going to be eliminated at this stage actually wins immunity. Maria has a great chance to win, but if she doesn't, she's going home.
4. Liz Wilcox
Assuming she isn't eliminated fifth, Liz seems like the most likely person to be eliminated in the final four. If it's Charlie, Liz, Ben, and Kenzie, Liz is unfortunately the odd person out.
If Charlie wins immunity, he's taking Ben to the final three, which would set up Liz vs. Kenzie in the fire-making challenge. I'd give the advantage to Kenzie.
If Ben wins immunity, I think he would take Kenzie to the final three, which then would set up Charlie vs. Liz in the fire-making challenge. Again, Charlie should be favored there.
Then, if Kenzie wins immunity, she could choose either Ben or Liz, but it feels like she's much closer with Ben, and let's be honest, he's not really a threat to win the game.
I feel like, and this could be totally wrong, I saw most of the other people make fire this season, but I can't recall if Liz has made fire yet. That's why I think she's getting voted out in fourth place.
3. Ben Katzman
Ben feels like the most likely person to make the final three of any of the castaways remaining. I don't mean that in a mean way! Ben has played his game. He's good vibes. He hasn't made enemies, and he's been relatively safe all game. Of course, it hasn't been easy, but he's doing a great job playing the way that he needs to play to go deep in the game.
Ben will likely make the final three, and depending on who he is up against, he will finish either second or third. In this scenario, the final three is obviously Ben, Kenzie, and Charlie. Ben is getting zero votes, probably, if this happens. Kenzie and Charlie have played better games strategically, so I would assume those two would take home the most votes.
2. Kenzie Petty
There's a very real chance that Kenzie is the winner of Survivor 46 if this plays out how it should with Maria going home at five and then someone taking out Charlie in the fire-making challenge. If that happens, Kenzie is the winner!
But, I don't think that's going to happen. Kenzie should finish runner-up this season. She's played an incredible game, especially with how bad things started on the Yanu tribe. While Kenzie was left out of the Tiffany vote to ensure that Tiffany would not play her idol, Kenzie has been on the right side of every vote since the merge. That's an incredible achievement. She and Liz also made the biggest move of the game so far in taking out Q. Although Charlie planted the seed, Kenzie and Liz deserve all the credit for making that huge move.
I think Kenzie, if she makes the final three against Charlie, will pick up a vote or two, but she's not going to beat him in the end.
1. Charlie Davis
If all goes how it should, Charlie will be the winner of Survivor 46. It's not like he's played that much better than Maria or Kenzie, but he's eliminated every single person since the merge (so far). He got some help when he needed it most, but he survived Maria's attempt to vote him out. Et tu, Maria?
Charlie would beat Kenzie and Ben in the final three. He's won more immunity challenges. He's played as good or better of a social game. In terms of strategy, Charlie has executed his plan flawlessly. I don't think any person on the jury has anything strongly against Charlie, and that's going to mean a lot at the end of the game.
This could go very differently. If Charlie doesn't win immunity at the final five, he very easily could be going home. If he doesn't win immunity at the final four, he is going to be making fire. Ben, Kenzie, and Liz would doom themselves to lose by taking Charlie to the final three. He has a lot of work to do, but more often than not, Charlie is winning this season.
Those are my predictions for the Survivor 46 finale! We'll see how it all shakes out soon!