Mitch Guerra has played a social game on Survivor 48. He is endearing to fans and a genuinely kind and caring person who is easy to root for. He has tried to play the game as honestly as he can and has served as a role model for those watching who feel their speech impediment may be a barrier to their success.
Unfortunately, on the strategic side, Mitch has laid back so far this game. He often finds himself in the majority numbers, a testament to his social game, but his default position is to lay low, go with the status quo, and not rock any boats. This strategy is valid, but ultimately, he will need to show the jury some level of agency if he wants to win their vote.
Mitch's missed opportunity based on perception
It appears from the outside that Mitch may have missed his opportunity on Survivor 48, Episode 9, which could potentially be the last chance he had the numbers to go against the core four alliance. The underdog group was all ready to pull the trigger on a move, but Mitch pulled out. To outsiders, this seems like a massive strategic mistake that took away his agency in the game.
However, on this week's episode of On Fire with Jeff Probst, the official Survivor podcast, Rachel LaMont, the Survivor 47 winner, explained the thought process Mitch may have had and why the choice makes sense from his perspective. While she stopped short of saying it was the right move, she helped to humanize what appears to be a strategic misstep to remind us, castaways are human too.
The segment began with a clip of Mitch speaking in a confessional about his thought process. "For everyone sitting at home who's saying 'come on Mitch, you have to make a move, you have to make a move'. You can't make moves with people you don't trust, and I don't trust Mary or Star."
This is a fair point. On the podcast, Jeff Probst acknowledges that point as well.
"It goes back to Rachel's point earlier, about these moves should work because of trust, right?" Jeff said. "That's what Mitch is saying."
A move cannot be made if the trust is not there, because those players you do not trust may turn on you.
Jeff's comment is interesting because for the player, trust is evident. For the fans, it is not as much of a factor. This perspective is what co-host Jay Wolff brought up.
"My fan perspective, which is this, seems to me like risk versis math, right?" Jay said. "After this boot your minority is solidified, so shouldn't Mitch and Kamilla roll the dice here?"
Rachel is able to offer some insight into that question, and while it seems like a no-brainer, perhaps the process is more complicated. Here's what she said:
"Well, as viewers, we know how tight the strong four is, so we know they should be rolling the dice here, but let's look at what gets lost on TV sometimes. Like, if we look back to the last episode, Joe won a reward and picked Mitch first, even before Eva."
"It's hard to say what kind of impact those types of interaction can have on Mitch's psyche and where he thinks his place is within the six. If he believes he can't trust Star and Mary moving forward or tonight, that's a big risk to take. So while I believe Mitch should be willing to gamble here, when you're out there playing, it just always feels more complicated than math."
I think the way Jay responds is the reaction many of us have when listening to that statement by Rachel.
"Right, that's so interesting, Rachel, that you say that," Jay said. "I mean, I personally can say I had no recollection that Joe picked Mitch first the previous reward. And the fact that that is a consideration, and that's what Mitch is feeling, it is so complex when it comes to how these votes work."
These factors are precisely the things that we, as viewers, do not take into account. Feelings, thoughts, emotions, and perspective are something we cannot see when we sit at home. We get the full picture of what the editors want us to see. We do not get the inside perspective of what goes on behind the scenes, or how certain decisions can skew the way a player views their standing. With that in mind, Mitch's decision could be defendable.
Now, ultimately, Rachel does say she would have made the move, and that is likely what makes her a winning Survivor player and the difference between her and Mitch, who seems likely not to win at this point. Nevertheless, we have to remember not to be hard on players for things they may not be able to see without the perspective of the edit.
Ultimately, Rachel talking through Mitch's reasoning does not sway my view of the gameplay. In the end, I believe he should have had some notion of where he stood in the game, and if he truly did not, then that is a game flaw in and of itself. I do still believe his only way to win was to make the move, and now he is at the mercy of everyone else in the game.
All that said, it is refreshing to be reminded that players are human too. They have real thoughts, real emotions, and real feelings in the game. They are not just game bots that walk through Survivor emotionless, just pulling a trigger on moves for the sake of doing so. We as fans need to be understanding and empathetic of that, and remember that at the end of the day, it is just a game.
Mitch may have made a strategic blunder here, and time will tell how stuck he is. Still, Mitch is a good person with a good heart, and he is playing the game based on trust. That is something we can all respect, even if we do not agree with the choices he made.