In Survivor 47, Rachel LaMont has played as nearly perfectly as one can play it. She has never been the person who thought she was in charge. She was never the primary decision-maker in the game until the final six votes. She had vision within the game. She saw how the game was unfolding and what things might happen to derail the game for her.
The impressive thing about Rachel's game was that her name was tossed about as a dangerous player in almost every post-merge episode. Unless I'm wrong (and I often am), Rachel never had a vote against any tribal council until the final six. That is quite the accomplishment - to be as good as she was and not have many votes go her direction.
It wasn't a perfect game; she missed the signs that Andy would flip on the Caroline Vidmar vote. Andy had burned her in the past, but he fooled her there. She even allowed him to plant the seed that Genevieve Mushaluk had an idol and let him convince their alliance to split their votes.
Since the merge, Genevieve and Rachel emerged as the best players. Both have been playing on a higher plane than the rest, and there are plenty of solid Surivior players this season. Rachel had the bigger impact in challenges with three immunity wins, but Genevieve won one herself.
Both would have been fine choices to win Sole Survivor, but Genevieve became the last jury member. The win should be an easy, no-brain decision on the part of the jury.
How could Rachel LaMont lose Survivor 47?
With one more challange left, and in the previews, it looked like a hard one. If that is the case, Teeny Chichillo has no shot. She is not good physically or with puzzles. It would be a true miracle if she wins.
Sue Smey will probably struggle, too, in a physical challenge, and she's not excelled in puzzles either. She's held her own in some challenges, despite her advanced age, and even won one, but it would be surprising if she wins the last one.
That leaves Sam Phalen, who has been successful in a few reward challenges but hasn't shown much in immunity challenges. If the final challenge is purely physical, he can win. If puzzles or dexterity are key components, it is likely Rachel will win.
If Rachel wins and makes it to the final three on her own accord, she should be as much of a shoo-in as we've seen. If she loses, all bets are off.
Assuming there aren't any more twists I'm not aware of if Sam wins that final immunity, he will most likely take Teeny and make Sue try to beat Rachel into making fire. If Sue wins immunity, the smart thing would be to take Teeny, but she's been incredibly loyal so far. It would almost be disappointing if she made Sam and Rachel go in the fire challenge.
Teeny is not winning final immunity, but if she did, she could make Rachel and Sam fight it out to see who sits with her and Sue at the final. Rachel has made fire around camp and might be hard to beat. We've seen miracles in the past with the fire-making challenge, and a wrong breeze or a poorly constructed base could end Rachel's game. That would be tragic.
If Rachel wins, it would be a very boss thing to do to take Sam and make the other two make fire, but I think she will choose Sue and Sam.
Regardless of the makeup of the final three, it is still in the hands of the jury. Many jurors mentioned Rachel as a threat throughout the game, and many tried to get her out at one time or the other. Still, you never quite know what a jury will do.
As everyone witnessed at the final tribal on Survivor 46, one jury member threw away her game friendship and partnership, the strongest in the game for 23 days, to vote for someone else based on emotion from one moment rather than on the gamesmanship displayed for 26 days. Charlie Davis was robbed of the win, for reasons that did not involve the game much.
The point is that audiences can never know all the dynamics over 26 days. There is too much to edit down into what we see on Wednesdays. Sue has at least two close allies on the jury to whom she was loyal and protective. Sam could have at least one vote in Sierra, and Teeny might pull in Sol's vote.
That said, the jury is filled with bright, strategic players. It would be shocking if enough of those jurors don't appreciate the often subtle, but powerful game Rachel played and ward her the million dollars.
Rachel should win Surivor 47, but it is far from a done deal.