Prior to watching Survivor 49 episode 3, "Lovable Losers," I was fully prepared to write up another analysis of the tragedy of the Kele tribe.
While (un-shocking spoiler) they had another week that dug them so far into the grave of new era starting tribes that they can officially be called the worst / unluckiest of the bunch, a series of unfortunate events might finally have gotten so bad that the tables have turned and put them in a good position.
Spoilers ahead for Survivor 49!
An early exit means a new crossroads for one castaway in Survivor 49
This week, the central drama of the episode circulated around Jake Latimer's unexpected exit from the game after he was bitten by a banded sea krait. Thankfully it was a dry bite—not venomous—and the bright side of it all was that he was able to go home and be with his wife for the birth of his son.
And for the Kele tribe, Jake was the glue holding the majority alliance together as well as the flint sparking a flame of rivalry between his two top allies, Alex Moore and Sophi Balerdi. While he was the one contributing the most physically in challenges, he was also the one causing the most social tension back at camp, and it had nothing to do with being the "Shoe Bandit."
Because Alex and Sophi wanted to take each other down in order to be the only one carrying the torch of Jake's affection. But in reality, working together might have been the cosmic push they needed to actually be able to finish a puzzle in a challenge. We'll never know...
What we do know is that with Kele losing another challenge alongside Jake's departure, Sophi found herself in a new position: move forward with someone still in the game she trusts the most—Jeremiah Ing—or someone who someone she trusted more trusted most—Alex.
Advantages are the key to the path forward in Survivor 49
This season, beware advantages are the worst kept secret in the game. Not a single one from any of the three beaches is locked away tight in one player's pocket. During episode 2, Jake was around when Alex found the beware advantage and then within minutes of him unlocking the hidden immunity idol it led to, the entire Kele tribe knew about it.
And in episode 3, our other tribes followed their lead, with MC Chukwujekwu finding it during a tribe-wide hunt at the Hina beach and sharing the news with Steven Ramm and Rizo Velovic finding it in the same fashion over at Uli, but announcing it to everyone.
But while idol hunts were everywhere this week, only one idol mattered to the fate of the game at this moment. Because with only three in the picture, the future of Kele depended on whether or not Alex played his idol. If he didn't and Sophi and Jeremiah both voted for him, he left with an idol in his pocket. If he did and Sophi and Jeremiah both voted for him, he chose who went home and was left with a player he couldn't trust.
So going back to Sophi's dilemma that we pondered on earlier, there was only one right choice to make based on all the possible outcomes. Sophi had to write down Jeremiah's name whether Alex played an idol or not in order to ensure that she appeared loyal to him, just in case he played it. He did, and she did, and now rather than moving forward as adversaries—as they would have if Jake were still in the game—they go forth into the game as allies. Plot twist!
Next time on Survivor...
Episode 4 in the new era usually brings a shake up with a tribe swap, but with 14 people instead of 15, how will that look now? Will the show finally go back to a two tribe format? Or will we have some sort of disadvantaged tribe situation—will Kele just be down a player by default?
There's so many possibilities and contingencies that the show was likely prepared for since we have seen medevacs and quitters leading up to this point in the game in recent seasons, but for some reason, this one still feels unprecedented.
We'll find out soon enough when a new episode of Survivor airs this Wednesday at 8pm ET on CBS and Paramount+.