With 13 players left in the game, it's hard to say Survivor 50 is coming down to the wire. With only six episodes of the season left, we're closer than ever to crowning the Survivor 50 winner during the live reunion on Wednesday, May 20.
Since before the season started, there's been one player who has been the favorite to win Survivor 50 on Kalshi and Polymarket. That player is Aubry Bracco, who has been trending above 80% to win Survivor 50 on both prediction market exchanges since the premiere on Wednesday, Feb. 25.
Well, for the first time this season, Aubry has dipped below 80%, and another player, Cirie Fields, is gaining traction on Kalshi and Polymarket. Aubry still sits at 71.6% on Kalshi and 73% on Polymarket, but Cirie sits between 15-20% on each after Survivor 50 episode 7, "That's Not How I Play Survivor," aired on Wednesday, April 8.
Aubry is still the clear favorite to win the season based on the markets, but Cirie is definitely winning fans and predictors over.
There are so many rumors about who wins Survivor every season, but it's especially challenging for Survivor 50 in 2026 because of how social media platforms pay for engagement and how many well-known players are competing this season. There are, of course, scoopers who track Survivor religiously, but there are other bad-faith actors, so it's difficult to know what rumors are true or not.
Cirie and Aubry are super interesting picks to win because I don't really think they've had the edit to reflect a winning run yet. Cirie and Aubry are in the middle of the pack in terms of screentime, but when you consider they haven't actually had much to do compared to some of the players who have been to every Tribal Council, like Christian Hubicki or Emily Flippen, that might make more sense.
The game is really just beginning, though. If you compare it to most seasons, we're just getting to the good part, you know? With 13 players left, there's still so much time to make the big moves that will define the season. I'd argue that we haven't seen one big move that will define this season yet. Christian's blindside on Mike White is probably the most exciting vote of the season so far.
I'm not saying that Cirie or Aubry will win, but there's a lot of smoke here to not believe there's some fire, if you know what I mean. Cirie is playing a terrific game so far. I really thought she would be one of the first players voted out because she's Cirie. She will chew you up and spit you out in this game if she wants. She's a real contender to win because she has some very interesting allies with Rizo Velovic and Ozzy Lusth. Rizo is a schemer, and no one sees him coming. Ozzy, as we saw in the last immunity challenge, is very much still Ozzy. This group has all the advantages in the game right now, and that could mean a lot as the game continues.
Aubry, on the other hand, is basically in Coach's larger alliance, but she is really ally-less aside from Tiffany Ervin, who seems like the next person to get voted out if the latest vote is any indication.
We'll continue to monitor the situation, but for now, it looks like most predictors feel like Aubry or Cirie will be the Survivor 50 winner. Only Rizo Velovic and Joe Hunter are over 3% on Kalshi or Polymarket.
Watch Survivor 50 on Wednesdays on CBS and Paramount+ at 8 p.m. ET.