There are only a few last left until we finally get to see what the open era ofSurvivoris all about asSurvivor 51premieres this Wednesday, September 23 at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. But before that moment comes, it’s time for my favorite seasonal tradition: predicting who will win, who will make it far, and who will go home first.
And because there is a record 21 castaways, we’re going to start with the men.Everything I’ve seenabout the premiere episode makes me think they are going to attempt an all-male alliance. And while I don’t think it will go in their favor, there are definitely a few men who stand out as players who have the potential to win it all—if they can make it to the end.
But, as always, a reminder that the predictions I make are solely based on the trends I’ve seen watchingSurvivorreligiously over the last 26 years. This show has been a huge part of my life for over 75% of it, so you could say the strategy ofSurvivoris embedded in my brain. I know exactly what it takes to win the game, but it’s not always the best outward players who get through to Final Tribal Council.
But I did previously predict Kyle Fraser winningSurvivor 48and Savannah Louie winningSurvivor 49long before the first episode premiered. And I knew Aubry Bracco had what was needed to winSurvivor 50—calling out right after the cast was announced, a year before the finale, that I was only going to love the anniversary season if she won—even though I was also leaning towards Christian Hubicki. But who could have predicted Jimmy Fallon showing up and messing up his game?
All that to say, nothing below is confirmed, it’s simply my opinion, even if it turns out to be right.
Brady Booker (27, Professional Wrestler)
Performance Prediction:Brady is giving off the physical prowess of Jonathan Young with the strategic mentality of Jeremy Collins, which will make him an indispensable challenge asset in the early game, but a post-merge threat. Once individual immunity challenges start, no matter who he’s built an alliance with in the early game, I think he could be in danger if he doesn’t win every challenge.
Placement Forecast:Early merge / early jury member.
Carter Krull (24, Livestock Farmer)
Performance Prediction:Carter is likeSurvivor: Tocantins’J.T. Thomas 2.0. His natural country charisma and hands-on work ethic will instantly earn him deep trust not only with his tribe mates, but with everyone. If he finds a good strategic player to align with, his grit and can-do attitude could carry him very far.
Placement Forecast:Mid-merge / jury member.
Cristian Chavez (26, Head of HR)
Performance Prediction:As the Head of HR, Cristian has all the skills he needs to win this game. His daily experience resolving high-stakes interpersonal conflicts for his company gives him an elite toolkit for navigating tribe drama. However, his big personality could be too much for the rest of the tribe to handle in the early days of the game which might prevent him from being on the right side of the numbers and could make him an easy early boot.
Placement Forecast:Pre-merge.
Danny “Kilby” Kilby (30, Game Designer)
Performance Prediction:Kilby is giving major board game player vibes, which makes me think he’s going to attack this game in a similar fashion to Zeke Smith and Rizo Velovic, but with better puzzle skills. His deep understanding of the game—even in an unpredictable era—makes him highly likely to score advantages, but if he’s too heavy on strategy too early, he could be seen as dangerous. I think he’ll be smart, though, and keep to himself strategically while making connections socially at the top of the game, which will take him far.
Placement Forecast:Late merge / jury member.
Devin Way (33, Actor)
Performance Prediction:He’s a self-described combination of Joe Hunter’s physical power and Rick Devens’ charm, which is a deadly combination if true. He has the charisma to manage his threat level effortlessly and I think will easily make it to the finale as a number, but will be just shy of Final Tribal Council due to his allies needing him out because they know he’ll win the jury’s vote with the relationships he’s formed.
Placement Forecast:Finale / jury member.
Eric Macksoud (34, Mental Health Counselor)
Performance Prediction:Eric gives off early days anxious Aubry Bracco or Hannah Shapiro with just a hint of a villainous social vibe. His counseling background has the potential to make him a confidant for his fellow tribe mates and give him potential as a strong middle-man, learning everyone’s information and using it for his own gain. And while that will allow him to navigate the game well, it will ultimately make him a threat by the end, forcing his allies to send him to the jury so they won’t vote for him over them.
Placement Forecast:Finale / jury member.
Lewis Kelly (28, Farmer)
Performance Prediction:Immediately, Lewis’ thick accent paints a certain light around him, whether it shows his true identity or not, which means he has the potential to be a wildcard. He’s really itching to stir the pot, though, and that’s not going to do him any favors early on. I foresee him being seen as a high-risk player who might go down with the ship while organizing a big blindside.
Placement Forecast:Pre-merge.
Mike Pinsky (32, Baseball Executive)
Performance Prediction:Mike’s role as a baseball executive means he potentially has great management skills, a penchant for risk assessment and long-term strategy, and a salesman’s charisma—in a positive way. If he gives off a non-threatening demeanor to mask his tactical gameplay mindset, he could definitely be a front-runner for the title of Sole Survivor. But if he allows others to see him threat status, he’ll be gone before he even hits three strikes.
Placement Forecast:Pre-jury target / winner.
Ori Jean-Charles (27, Personal Trainer)
Performance Prediction:As a personal trainer, Ori could be bringing elite physical conditioning and a good hustle to the island, making him a dominant force in tribe challenges, but a threat outside of them. To survive post-merge, he’ll have to downplay his physicality and lean into a tight social bond early on. But even that might not be enough.
Placement Forecast:Early merge / jury member.
Rob Antonson (40, Airline Gate Agent)
Performance Prediction:Being a father to three as well as working in an airport, Rob manages high-stress environments on the daily, which means he’ll have unmatched patience and adaptability in the game. His warm, relatable personality will allow him to slide into majority alliances early, not giving off any levels of threat as he works with some shields to keep him in the game. But a tribe switch could change all of that and force him out earlier than expected.
Placement Forecast:Pre-merge.
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