Three weeks in and Survivor 48 is already breaking records and dropping jaws.
What was shaping up to be another average episode in the season—Civa is emphasizing social gameplay at camp, Lagi is physically dominating challenges, and Vula is quite possibly playing a different game altogether—quickly flipped to give us an eleven o'clock number that was somehow both worthy of a standing ovation and an eye roll.
But should we have expected it? It's probably no shocker that my answer is (as always) of course!
Let's dive into this week's narrative, how we should have seen any drama coming, how it could have been prevented, and how it will drastically change alliances moving forward.
Spoilers ahead!
Lagi and Civa Updates
This week's main character was the Vula tribe, so I only have a couple of notes regarding our other players' paths forward.
Once again, Civa's beach is focused on storytelling and social game. This week, we got a peek into David Kinne's home life as he shared his financial hardships and why he needs to win Survivor. This is the third week in a row that we've seen a big focus on David in the edit, but his tribe members don't seem to be too keen on all the intricacies that he's sharing. It's giving me major vibes that he's ultimately going to be used as a shield going into the merge—which Mitch Guerra and Charity Nelms basically confirmed—and then he'll be voted out once his number is no longer needed (as long as he doesn't win immunity that week).
The members of the Lagi tribe are high energy in challenges but low morale at camp. That can pretty much be attributed to the fact that they are so socially divided, and most of them don't even realize it. People like Thomas Krottinger and Shauhin Davari are playing hard (and playing everyone), each of them with multiple branches of gameplay plans at the ready when the time comes. I initially thought it was going to be Thomas and Bianca Roses who would go head to head at some point, but now the two younger members of the California Girls alliance seem to be the power players to look out for.
The Challenge
For the third week in a row, Lagi and Civa came out on top, while Vula left the challenge with another trip to Tribal Council on the books. At least this week, they were slightly in it towards the end, and it wasn't as huge a blowout as last week.
But this is one of the biggest reasons why fans have been begging to go back to a two tribe start. When the game kicks off with three tribes in such low numbers, the odds that the tribe that loses first will be the tribe that continues to lose are extremely high since they're the ones not getting reward, without fire, and with higher tension back at camp.
With Vula getting down to three members after this week's loss, there's no doubt in my mind we will be getting a tribe switch up next week, and it will be interesting to see how the challenge-winning structure changes with it.
The Journey
As the winners of the challenge, Lagi got to choose the journey champions—Bianca from Lagi, Kamilla Karthigesu from Civa, and Justin Pioppi from Vula—whose fates were left to a roll of the dice. Kamilla left victorious with an extra vote, while both Bianca and Justin returned without a vote at their next Tribal Council.
In true Civa fashion, Kamilla chose full transparency and shared everything that happened on the journey with her tribe upon returning. Bianca opted to tell Lagi that she did not participate, so her vote is still safe, but then shared she lost it to her ally Thomas—who immediately reminded us that he is the villain of the season, maniacal laugh included. And Justin made up a full lie about winning a reward for the tribe that would show up the next day.
"Committing to the Bit"
The name of this week's episode stems from Mary Zheng not solidifying any advantages before Tribal Council, but wanting to convince the rest of her tribe that she has. As soon as we learned such a substantial phrase came from Mary, I knew she'd be safe, but I'm honestly surprised how it happened.
With Mary's act, Sai Hughley was absolutely convinced that she had found an idol. She talked with her closest ally, Cedrek McFadden, who was not so convinced. Either way, Sai was nervous about Justin and broached the idea of voting him out, which Cedrek immediately squashed.
If you watch back Survivor exit interviews, one of the most common phrases is, "I wish I'd trusted my gut." Sai is smart and so far has trusted her instincts, so it killed me to see her wavering this week, especially since if she had just written Justin's name down in the first place, he would have gone home exactly as she wanted without all the extra theatrics (though they do make for good TV).
Plus, if Sai assumed Mary was playing an idol and most likely voting for her, putting all three other votes on Mary would have sent Sai home. It would have been in Sai's best interest not to listen to Cedrek from the beginning and just write Justin's name down as a contingency, regardless. Always trust your gut, future Survivor players! But the fact that she was so unsure when the answer was so clear is what told us this was going to be a crazy Tribal Council.
Ultimately, Cedrek and Sai voted for Mary, Mary played her Shot in the Dark and was granted safety, and Justin did not have a vote. With the need for a revote, Sai voted for Justin and Cedrek voted for Sai, which I still don't understand. There were two votes in the urn. Mary gave up hers to play an advantage, so clearly Justin lost his on the journey and lied about it. Why did Cedrek vote for Sai when he should have known the other vote would be Justin?
On the re-vote, surely now he understands Justin doesn't have a vote as there were only two votes, Mary doesn't have a vote and it had to be Sai's vote in there since Justin can't vote for himself. Yet once again, he writes down Sai and I realize Cedrek is committing to his bit of being loyal to his number one ally, refusing to write down his name, even though it puts them in a deadlock.
Finally, per the rules, Justin and and Sai cannot be a part of the vote as they are the tied members, Mary does not have a voice after playing her shot in the dark, so Cedrek is literally the one who gets to choose who goes home. Obviously he's going to send home the person he just voted for twice, right?
Not Everyone Can Commit
Alas, when the time came for Cedrek to commit to the vote he'd written twice, he changed his mind and sent his first ally Justin home when Sai reiterated her loyalty and promised she and Mary would get along moving forward.
So, for the second time in three weeks, Sai, the person I consider to be the biggest strategic threat on the Vula tribe, escaped when she was completely available to be taken out. She claims to be wary of these boys, yet she's managed to simply convince them to take each other out one by one. The fact Cedrek didn't notice this pattern and chose to keep Sai over Justin—when he has seen firsthand how she goes for those who wrong her—after writing her name down twice has me very excited for what's to come next for the trio.
If we thought this moment was chaotic, I predict an even bigger explosion is in their future once they're able to recruit original Lagi and Civa members to create a new alliance to change the game even more dramatically moving forward.
Next Time on Survivor...
I am not too proud to admit that I completely underestimated Mary going into this season and am ready for her and Sai to "commit to the bit" by keeping their word to Cedrek as they learn to work together...to turn around and vote him out. It might not be next week with a tribe change coming, but the best moves always come when the player least expects it.
With an odd number in the game, I could definitely see three tribes becoming two with one person being left out of the immunity challenge, most likely with a ticket to Exile Island afterwards. The losing tribe will send someone home and our lone castaway will return to fill that space, taking us back to two even tribes. And they'll likely have a new advantage in their pocket as well, adding another level of shake-up to an already twisty episode.
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